Coalition support fell to 16.0 per cent in a recent HS poll. The last time the Coalition Party ‘s popularity was so low was in February 1995.
Although published on Wednesday HS-Gallup the changes go within the margin of error, the results electrify the spring political setups.
The basic Finns clearly became the largest party in the poll, which will certainly increase the number of rounds of its opposition policy. The difference to the second Sdp is now a percentage point.
The strongest contributor to the survey was the Center, which strengthened its support by 0.8 percentage points. It brings a glimmer of light to the gloom of the center.
Read more: Basic Finns raised their necks to the SDP: The party has “the best starting point in its history for municipal elections,” says the researcher
However, this time the focus will be on the Coalition Party, as its situation is interestingly twofold: the Coalition Party is a pre-favorite for the largest party in the June municipal elections. At the same time, it is doing historically badly.
The Coalition Party’s support fell by 0.4 percentage points in Wednesday’s poll, which is a small change. If there were a parliamentary election now, 16.0 per cent of respondents would vote for the Coalition Party.
16 percent however, support is an exceptionally low figure in the Coalition’s history. Especially when opposition usually tends to support party parties.
The research report submitted to the HS by the research company Kantari includes the HS-Gallup time series from October 2011. During that time, support for the Coalition has never been so low.
And not for a moment before that.
Namely, history has to go back as much as 26 years to look for a moment when support for the Coalition would be as low as it is now.
Most recently, in February 1995, the Coalition Party’s support in the HS poll dropped to 16 per cent.
It’s been a really long time. Let’s remember a little.
In February The 1995 Coalition was Esko Ahon the second (central) government party. The party was led by a new chairman Sauli Niinistö. However, the strongest figure in the Coalition was the Minister of Finance Iiro Viinanen, which in the eyes of many citizens symbolizes the drastic cuts of the recession years.
The support of both main governing parties felt harsh on the decisions of the recession years.
Looking at the present, Finland at that time feels very distant.
In February 1995, Finland’s largest banks, SYP and KOP, announced that they would merge into Merita. Finland had joined the EU at the beginning of the year.
In 1995, Finland won the World Hockey Championship for the first time, Jari Sillanpää was crowned tango king and Altavista was the most popular search engine on the internet. The ringtone for the Nokia 2110 mobile phone was Nokia Tune.
In 1995, the 25-year-old was the general secretary of the University of Turku Student Union Petteri Orpo.
Coalition Party this spring is extremely important for the current President, Petteri Orpo.
Although Coalition support is at a historic low, the party may well be the largest party in the June municipal elections.
The Coalition Party is helped by the fact that municipal elections are likely to have a very low turnout. Coalition members vote relatively regularly – “the bourgeois always votes” – so a low turnout is relatively beneficial.
The Coalition Party seems to have succeeded quite well in recruiting candidates for the municipal elections. It now has, for example, more candidates in Uusimaa and Pirkanmaa than in the previous municipal elections. The party believes that with the extra time brought by the postponement of the election, it would also manage to raise the total number of candidates beyond the last one.
Read more: SDP, the Center Party and the Left Alliance lag behind most in the nomination of candidates for the municipal elections – the Greens and Basic Finns exceeded their previous records
Coalition indeed, he is serious about seeking the seat of the largest municipal party.
This is helped by the fact that the number of candidates for the SDP seems to be far from the last. It is known that due to government and interest rate rushes, the SDP’s management did not have much time to participate in the candidate acquisition.
The weak candidate acquisition is also explained by the fact that the SDP is doing too well in some way. Because party support has been so high in recent times, many of the demarches ’long-standing municipal influencers apparently now consider it a good time to abandon municipal politics.
Downtown the situation is the opposite. The party is in an existential crisis, so the party leadership did a tremendous job of acquiring candidates at the beginning of the year. Many veterans in the center also felt obliged to return to municipal politics to save the party.
For example, a former prime minister and MEP Anneli Jäätteenmäki (Central) announced last week that he was a candidate for Lapua’s council. Interestingly, this is Jäätteenmäki’s first time as a municipal candidate.
Basic Finns are at the forefront of the parliamentary support poll and have almost as many candidates as the Coalition Party – but it does not necessarily turn into votes as effectively as other major parties.
In preliminary speculation, the Coalition Party is a pre-favorite of municipal elections.
And thus, municipal elections could save Orpo’s presidency.
No one does do not know whether Orpo wants to take the Coalition to the 2023 parliamentary elections, but if the Coalition wins the municipal elections, the decision on the presidency remains in Orpo’s own hands.
And if the Coalition is not the largest, Orpo will probably be challenged at the summer 2022 party convention. Or he gives up on himself.
Orphans succeeded Elina Lepomäki and Antti Häkkänen already dug in their starting pits.
Lepomäki in particular has recently strengthened his position, announcing three weeks ago that he will be running for the Coalition Party as a municipal candidate in Helsinki. Lepomäki had previously had time to refuse to run for personal reasons.
Kirsi Pihan After withdrawing unexpectedly from Helsinki’s mayoral candidacy, Lepomäki agreed to the candidacy to help the Coalition in an awkward situation. The decision brought Lepomäki praise for team play among the members of the Coalition Party. It is a feature that has not been very often associated with Lepomäki in the Coalition Party before.
Lepomäki wrote in a book published three years ago that the Coalition has the power to exercise “a group of men who can fit in a space taxi”. Now Lepomäki is there in a space taxi himself – I think he can sit in the front seat of the car next to the driver.
However, Lepomäki may have to sit in the fearful place for some time to come.
The municipal elections may well save Petteri Orpo’s presidency. But it presupposes that with the victory in the municipal elections, the Coalition Party’s parliamentary election support will turn upwards from the historic pit.
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