Iran does not want a war with Pakistan, which, in addition to its friendliness, is a nuclear weapon state armed to the teeth, writes HS foreign correspondent Ville Similä.
Missiles are now blowing in every direction. On Thursday, Pakistan struck Iran's Sistan-Baluchistan province. At least nine were killed, Iran said.
“Iran is a brotherly country, and Pakistanis have great respect and affection for Iranians,” said Pakistan's foreign ministry, according to Reuters news agency.
This sounds like a strange thing to say from a country that has just attacked its neighbor with missiles.
Exchange of blows began on Tuesday when Iran struck Pakistan, Syria and the Kurdish areas of Iraq.
So Pakistan took revenge on Thursday. Iran invited Pakistan's case manager for an interview – Pakistan had already invited its ambassador home.
The exchange of blows is certainly worrying. Iran and Pakistan are aggressive military powers. The EU expressed its concerns, China offered to mediate.
People watch the devastation caused by a Pakistani missile strike in a village near Saravan, Iran, on Thursday.
However, the threat of war is likely to be low. Relations between Iran and Pakistan are pretty good, so the incident will probably pass unless some mistake causes things to get out of hand.
If Iran were to end up in a war in the near future, it would more likely start in another direction, one way or another against Israel.
Iran's the attack was not actually aimed at Pakistan, but at jihadist groups residing in Pakistan's western province of Baluchistan.
It was about revenge against the terrorist organization Isis. More than a hundred people died in its attack on Iran at the beginning of January.
Accordingly, Pakistan struck against separatist groups hiding on Iran's side.
Iran and Pakistan are border neighbors in their southern parts. The eastern parts of Iran and the western parts of Pakistan are remote regions where the central powers have a weak grip. They are home to jihadists and separatists, who cause a headache for both.
Iran and Pakistan probably understand each other well. It can also be assumed that the representatives of the countries have been in contact with each other.
“Pakistan continues to work to find common solutions with Iran against terrorism,” the Foreign Ministry said.
Foreign policy a researcher at the institute Olli Ruohomäki said on Wednesday for HSthat Iran's attacks on Tuesday were a message to their own.
That is undoubtedly the case. Iran wants to reassure its citizens that it has the strength and determination to respond to threats. The terrorist attack at the beginning of January hit a symbolically s
ensitive spot, as the terrorists attacked the general Qassem Suleimani to the commemoration.
The youth organization of the Islamist party Muslim Talba Mahaz demonstrated against the Iranian missile strike in the Pakistani capital Islamabad on Thursday.
The US assassinated Suleiman, who is very popular in Iran, with a cruise missile in January 2020. Iran vowed revenge, but it did not come. And now the terrorists were able to show Iran's weakness even at the commemoration.
The message of Iran's missiles also goes abroad. Iran is signaling to Israel and the United States that it will strike back.
“We are the world's missile power,” Iran's defense minister Mohammad Reza Ashtiani said at a press conference on Wednesday.
This also emphasizes that the attack on Pakistan is not about Pakistan.
in Iran the situation is delicate. The Islamist regime is in a weak state. It has lost its legitimacy in the eyes of the younger generation, and the economy is on the verge of an abyss. War and the deterioration of the economic situation could bring down the regime.
That's why Iran doesn't want war. Especially not with Pakistan, which is not only a friendly country but also a nuclear weapon state armed to the teeth. If Iran drifted into a longer exchange of strikes with Pakistan, Israel could count its moment as coming.
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