Comment|The November elections may be decided by the very voters that researchers see as the bite of the “Palin effect”, writes Anni Huttunen.
While watching Wednesday morning’s countless headlines from Democrats By Tim Walz and Republicans By JD Vance encounter, one could easily be mistaken for thinking that the vice-presidents’ election debates were of great importance.
On the pages of this newspaper as well, the issue had been discussed in the amount of six articles on Wednesday afternoon, and seven articles after the publication of this comment.
Historically, however, the vice presidential debates have been fairly pointless events.
of the United States public broadcaster PBS tells Professor of Politics at Rice University by Mark P. Jones from the analysis done by the presidential candidate’s vice presidential candidate doesn’t really influence the voters.
According to research, people vote for the president, not the vice president.
You often hear that it would be good for the presidential candidate to choose a vice president alongside him, who in some way complements or balances the candidate himself. For example, before the Democratic presidential candidate Terrible Harris announced his vice-presidential candidacy, moni speculatethat as a minority woman, she would like a white man by her side.
However, according to Jones’ research, it seems that this idea has also been given exaggerated weight.
US Media Institute Poynter has come to the same result. According to it, the arguments of the presidential candidates usually have little influence on the voters, and the vice presidential candidates even less.
At least one clear exception in the history of US politics is known.
The Republican vice-presidential candidate of the year 2008 was Sarah Palinthe former ultra-Christian governor of Alaska, who, according to research, actively deported John McCain potential voters.
In Political Research Quarterly published research on the so-called Palin effect says that people’s image of Palin was a good indicator of the voting decision in the 2008 election. That is, the images of the vice presidential candidate, not the president.
In fact, according to the study, Palin was the vice presidential candidate who had the most influence on voting decisions since 1980.
Thence despite the fact that historically vice presidential debates have had quite a bit of impact on voters, the Tim-Walz showdown may have had a hint of more at stake.
First, it was likely to be the last time this campaign was debated.
Although the encounter between the vice-presidential candidates has traditionally been followed by another debate between the presidential candidates, Donald Trump has refused to face Harris again.
So the debate was the last opportunity to attract voters to one’s camp.
In addition, the competition is extremely tight this time.
Elections may be decided by small differences in individual voting districts in the states of the Netherlands. According to those who have studied the Palin effect, it could specifically affect voters who were still thinking about their position.
As November approaches, they are the only ones in the United States.
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