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Ukraine's ammunition shortage is becoming increasingly apparent at the front. US insiders warn: The crisis is starting now and will get worse into the spring.
Kiev – It is becoming increasingly difficult for Ukraine to fend off the Russian war of aggression. Kiev has been warning about a shortage of ammunition for months. The warnings are becoming more and more urgent and have recently increasingly come directly from the front: “Our supplies are running out,” one commander told the Ukrainian newspaper Kyiv Independent. US insiders also warn: This is only the beginning of the crisis.
Ammunition shortage in the Ukraine war: Commanders warn of low supplies
The Ukrainian troops are saving the remaining ammunition wherever possible. According to estimates from the front, the ratio in the Ukraine war is now one to ten: Russia fires ten for every Ukrainian missile. Last summer, an internal EU paper spoke of 20,000 to 60,000 Russian artillery shells per day, while Ukraine had 2,000 to 7,000 shells. A US military expert told the Washington Post even higher numbers. Either way: Kiev's troops increasingly have too few for their defense.
The price of an artilleryman's sweat is measured by the blood of the infantryman.
There is a saying, said Roman Holodivskyi, the battery commander of the 43rd Artillery Brigade of Ukraine, dem Kyiv Independent. “The price of an artilleryman's sweat is measured by the blood of an infantryman.'” So far, the USA has been by far Ukraine's largest supporter – including when it comes to artillery ammunition. The budget dispute between Republicans and Democrats and the associated reduction in arms deliveries is becoming increasingly noticeable at the front.
Many fear that what happens next is that former US President and NATO critic Donald Trump will be re-elected. Without US support, Putin could win the war against Ukraine, it was said from Kiev and Washington. Although Europe wants to produce more ammunition itself, but progress is slow. The consequences are noticeable: From Washington and Kiev's perspective, a lack of ammunition is the reason why Russian troops were recently able to take Avdiivka.
Ukraine is sometimes unable to attack strategic targets in order to save ammunition
Even useful targets that could be hit with artillery were sometimes left alone in order to save ammunition, said commander Vitalii “Skyba”. Kyiv Independent. Five Russian soldiers standing together would no longer be enough to give the order to shoot. “It feels like we only shoot when we see a target, while their weapons fire 24/7 and they dismantle entire villages just for fun,” Vitalii continued. “We can't work like that, we often only have three shells to hit a target and we expect that to be enough, while they can easily fire 20 shells on a target.”
We can't work like that, we often only have three grenades to hit a target.
Commander Holodivskyi speaks of official restrictions on the use of grenades per target. In a specific case against a Russian attack group, he received permission to fire five projectiles. “That’s three for dial-in and two for actual damage. “If we had allowed ten grenades for this large enemy group, it would have been destroyed,” the commander continued. When US arms deliveries were still coming regularly, Ukraine saved on ammunition and built up a reserve. These camps are now only half full, according to voices from the front.
Putin's arms production delivers supplies: Russian “production lines run smoothly”
In 2022, Ukraine even had artillery superiority in the Kherson region at times. But the tide has turned. Russian President Vladimir Putin quickly converted his country to a war economy and boosted weapons and ammunition production. Apparently with success: the grenades that Russian troops would fire with would be “manufactured in 2022 or 2023,” said the commander, adding: There is no Russian hunger for ammunition, “their production lines are running smoothly.” The sanctions crisis only lasted a short time. Moscow quickly found ways to circumvent Western economic restrictions.
The Czech Republic is apparently aware of the seriousness of the ammunition problem. Within a few weeks, Prague wants to procure 800,000 rounds of artillery ammunition for Ukraine, as Czech President Petr Pavel announced at the Munich Security Conference. It's high time: By the end of March, Ukraine could face a “catastrophic shortage of ammunition and air defense” if the US Congress does not pass the $61 billion bill for Kiev. Two anonymous US officials told ABC News on Wednesday. “The crisis begins now and will get worse throughout the spring and into the summer,” it said. It was recently announced that Denmark had promised Ukraine its “full artillery” for the fight against Russia.
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