Finland, which has gladly demonstrated the ambition of its climate goals, will have to rebuild its climate path.
Finland has announced in the program of the government of Sanna Marin (sd) that it aims to be the world ‘s first fossil – free welfare society. Speaking at the Glasgow climate summit in November 2021, President Sauli Niinistö said that Finland is one of the most ambitious countries in the world in terms of climate goals. Finland intends to be carbon neutral already in 2035.
Finland has liked to be a model student in climate issues both in the EU and in the world.
Critics say Finland’s carbon neutrality target is not particularly ambitious, as Finland will not have to make an unreasonable effort to achieve it. Just as someone might succeed at school thanks to their good memory, Finland has had an effective trump card at its disposal.
Finland’s plan has been a 60 percent reduction in current climate emissions by 2035. The remaining 40 percent was to be cleared through forest carbon sinks. That is a big advantage, as the last tonnes of emissions to be reduced are always the most expensive and difficult.
According to the politically set target, the carbon sink (net sink) in 2035 should be around 21 million tonnes converted to carbon dioxide.
That the plan was scrapped on May 25th. At that time, Statistics Finland published a short-term forecast of greenhouse gas emissions in 2021. The net sink in the land use sector had disappeared, for the first time ever. There were emissions on its farm. In other words, a reasonably impressive net sink had become a smaller source of emissions, the same size as emissions from waste.
The size of the net sink has fluctuated in the 21st century: the maximum sink has been 33 million tonnes (2009) and the smallest 8 million tonnes (2018). But it has never been a source of emissions.
The disappearance of the sink means that the target net sink (21 million tonnes) is suddenly almost six times farther than imagined a year ago. The figures from the quick prediction are still being refined, but the still life swinging on its head will hardly recover.
Land use sector within the change has taken place above all in the woods. According to a quick prediction, the carbon sink of forests last year was only a quarter of what it had been before.
It has always been known that logging reduces the carbon sink of forests. However, the government has no plans to intervene in private logging, and other types of measures have been taken to strengthen carbon sequestration, such as fertilizing forests and afforesting wastelands.
High logging rates contribute to the decline in forest carbon sinks. Last year, almost as many fellings were made as in the record year 2018.
Another factor was the slowdown in the growth of forests. Growth has slowed, especially in pine forests and especially in northern Finland. In part, this was to be expected (in the previous measurement period, the growth of pine forests was faster than average), but in part the reasons are obscured.
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It is difficult to intervene in the growth rate of forests.
What can the government do? The government could directly influence the felling of state forests if it so wishes. However, much more logging is done in the forests of private individuals and companies, which is a slower and more difficult road to influence.
The pace of forest growth, on the other hand, is difficult to address when the causes are not yet clear.
Worst of all, the slowed growth rate is updated retrospectively in the statistics. This means that the throats of previous years can shrink. It also means that the government’s political sinking goal is getting further and further away and it is becoming increasingly unlikely to get there.
Finland can no longer escape the climate paint with its old strengths. The model student now has to work hard to achieve her goals.
The author is an environmental producer of HS.
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