SAO PAULO (Reuters) – Sugarcane crushing in south-central Brazil in 2023/24 (April/March) is expected to be between 575 million and 595 million tons, compared to 550 million in 2022/23, said on Monday the head of sugar trading at Chinese Cofco, Mauricio Sacramento, during an event in São Paulo.
He considered that agricultural productivity will be much better than the current crop, adding that the volume of Total Recoverable Sugar (ATR) will depend a lot on the rains, but it may be similar to the 2022/23 cycle.
“I brought a range (for grinding), but we believe it will be around 580, 585 million (tons, for grinding”), he said at an industry event promoted by consultancy Datagro.
The biggest doubt is related to the total amount of cane that will be directed to sugar or ethanol, the so-called “mix”, he pointed out.
“The mix is the biggest doubt regarding the next harvest, it is totally related to fuel taxes, scenarios that can be higher or lower”, he commented, referring to changes in taxes in Brazil this year that influenced competitiveness. of ethanol compared to gasoline.
According to him, the mix will depend on whether or not the federal tax on fuel will continue to be exempted from next year.
“I will not comment, we do not know what will happen after Sunday (date of the presidential election), much less what the legislation will be like next year”, he concluded.
Federal PIS/Cofins taxes for fuels were zeroed this year, but may return in 2023, which would favor greater ethanol production.
In any case, with an increase in crushing, sugar and ethanol production tends to increase from 22/23 in any scenario, according to Cofco’s figures.
With the return of rates, sugar production would grow less, from 32.9 million tons in the current harvest to up to 34.85 million tons in 23/24. Without the fees, it could increase to as much as 36.65 million tonnes.
The total production of ethanol, with the return of rates, could increase from 29.5 billion liters in 22/23 to up to 32.6 billion liters in the next season. Without the fees, it would rise to up to 31.6 billion liters.
The Cofco executive said that, in the midst of climate problems, the sector will not be able to crush the entire volume projected for 22/23, with “bisada” cane left over to be processed next year.
(By Roberto Samora)
#Cofco #sees #increase #sugarcane #crushing #centersouth #uncertainty #mix #ISTOÉ #DINHEIRO