Close race between Harris and Trump

The race for the US presidency in 2024 is coming to a head: Shortly before the TV duel between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, the polls are on a knife edge. Who would you support?

This week marks an important moment in the presidential race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. The vice president will have the opportunity to face off directly against the former president, whose political return she wants to prevent, in a televised debate. The clash on Tuesday evening at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia could be of great importance for Harris, as she will have to prove to voters her suitability for the presidency – a crucial point in the intense election campaign. Critics accuse Harris of being too liberal and of being responsible for failures in securing the border between the USA and Mexico.

While Harris has been preparing intensively for the debate and reportedly retreated with her campaign team for a few days to prepare, Trump has chosen a more relaxed approach and invested in campaign appearances. His recent statements and policy positions continue to emphasize his criticism of the 2020 election, which he describes as fraudulent, and his willingness to take drastic measures, such as jailing election officials or pardoning participants in the January 6 insurrection. He has also attacked women who accuse him of sexual misconduct. His appearances have sparked discussions about his stability and condition.

Polls predict a very close race – Harris slightly ahead

Shortly before the debate, current polls show that the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is completely open nationwide. However, the US electoral system is not based on absolute majorities, but on the Electoral College. In this system, electors, representing their respective states, cast their votes based on the state’s population.

During the election campaign, both parties focus primarily on so-called “swing states” – states whose political preferences change frequently. Here, the election outcome is uncertain, which makes states such as Arizona, Pennsylvania and Michigan particularly contested arenas. In contrast, the results in “red states” such as Oklahoma or “blue states” such as California are largely predictable.

The electoral system means that the candidate with the most votes nationwide does not necessarily become president. One example of this is Hillary Clinton, who received around three million more votes than Donald Trump in 2016, but still lost the election due to the Electoral College, as Trump was able to unite more states and thus electors behind him.

First major TV debate could be groundbreaking

The current polls show an extremely close race between Vice President Harris and President Trump. According to RealClearPoliticsHarris is slightly ahead nationwide, but only by 1.5 percentage points. The swing states in particular indicate that the majority will be extremely close. In total, around seven states could be considered swing states in the 2024 US election, with only a few percentage points separating the two candidates.

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