It doesn’t necessarily have to be less, but if we want to keep the consequences of climate change manageable, a lot has to be done in human life. And it’s still possible. That, in short, is the message of the IPCC report that came out this afternoon.
For the sixth time since 1990, scientists from all over the world have taken stock of what new knowledge has been gained about climate change. Part one of this sixth report was published in August on the causes, part two last month on the consequences and now part three is on the measures to be taken.
Incidentally, the scientists do not prescribe these measures, they list options. Because this is sometimes close to each other, the adoption of the summary for policymakers this year took longer than ever: the presentation of the report even had to be postponed half a day. Developing countries do not want to be limited in their possibilities for economic development, meat-producing countries objected to a term like ‘vegetable diet’, but the report as it stands has eventually been accepted by almost all countries of the world.
1.1 degrees warmer
It is not enough to look for the cheapest way to reduce emissions, a system change is really needed
How is that world doing? The goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels, as set in Paris in 2015, is getting out of sight, the IPCC says. It is already 1.1 degrees warmer on average, if people do nothing, the warming will rise to 5 degrees by the end of this century. With current policy, the temperature increase can be limited to 3.2 degrees, but that too would mean that large parts of the world would become unlivable.
To remain at the relatively safe 1.5 degrees, global emissions must be nearly halved by 2030 and go to zero by 2050. After that, large amounts of CO2 would have to be removed from the atmosphere, by planting trees and by technical solutions that are often still in their infancy.
Meanwhile, in the years 2010-2019, greenhouse gas emissions increased more than in any previous decade, the IPCC writes. This is not to say that climate measures already taken had no effect: the relative growth in emissions did level off in the period 2010-2019. Globally, emissions per euro earned, the so-called energy intensity, decreased. In a number of rich industrial countries, emissions even decreased in absolute terms. But the global economy grew so fast that, despite all these measures, total emissions still increased. The report concludes: the current climate policy is completely insufficient. In order to stay below 1.5 degrees of warming, humans will have to stop burning coal, oil and gas much faster than at present.
Far-reaching transformation needed
A far-reaching transformation of important economic sectors is needed. “It is not enough, as is happening now, to look for the cheapest way to reduce emissions, a system change is really needed,” says Heleen de Coninck, one of the five Dutch researchers who contributed to the report. contributed. She is professor at Eindhoven University of Technology and Radboud University Nijmegen. “We have to behave differently.”
She gives transport as an example. “It is not enough to replace the 8 million cars currently driving in the Netherlands with 8 million electric cars. The production of these also generates emissions.” Instead, the automaticity of getting into one’s own car should disappear. ,,What can we do by walking, cycling, scootering, by tram or with a shared car? How else can we transport our goods? This has major consequences for how you design your cities, and in what kind of infrastructure you invest.”
It’s just one example, and it’s possible if governments dare to take radical decisions. “Half of the houses in the world that will be built in 2050 have yet to be built,” says De Coninck. She sees plenty of good examples in residential areas around the world. “But we must prevent new cities that are being created from becoming car cities again.” That doesn’t necessarily mean less travel. Well: travel differently.
‘Nobody wants to be crazy Henkie’
The report points to the importance of innovation, the feasibility of measures and behavioral aspects. Research shows that people are more willing to change than the government often thinks. “Policy makers assume that people are mainly driven by money, but people are willing to do the right thing, provided they don’t feel that they are the only ones doing it,” says De Coninck. “Nobody wants to be crazy Henkie.” And can it be a little easier? “The government can open up subsidy schemes to make your home more sustainable, but you have to be of good quality to understand all the forms.”
Since Russia invaded Ukraine, there have also been voices for slowing down the energy transition. “That is a logical reflex, but not scientifically substantiated,” she says. There are now major concerns about grain supplies from Ukraine. “But the problem is not that there is not enough fertile agricultural land in the world. The problem is that three quarters of that is used for the production of animal feed.”
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