Climate change IPCC’s new climate report bury dreams of keeping temperatures below 1.5 degrees: “Even if we do our best, we’ll go beyond that”

Climate scientists the message of the new report to decision-makers is clear: we are in a hurry and our lifestyle needs to change.

“Without immediate and significant emission reductions in all sectors, limiting climate change to 1.5 degrees is unattainable,” the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) said in a statement.

In fact, even in the most optimistic calculations in the report, the rise in temperature exceeds that much-talked-about goal of the Paris Agreement.

“Even if we do everything we can, we will go over it and only then return,” sums up the experienced climate negotiator and the head of the Finnish Ministry of the Environment’s climate unit. Outi Honkatukia.

Honkatukia also urges that it be borne in mind that the likelihood of these best-case scenarios materializing is not slim. If the promised actions are implemented, the 1.5 degree target will only be met with a probability of about 50% and even the 2 degree with a probability of only 66%.

“Think about it, if you were to sell fire safety equipment in your home that prevents a fire with a 66 percent probability, would you buy it?”

IPCC published its expected report on mitigating climate change on Monday at 6 p.m., it summarizes what actions and changes are needed to halt global warming.

The report was published late, as member states have been arguing until the last minute about fossil fuels and who pays for climate action.

Oil countries, led by Saudi Arabia, are demanding a future for their largest export. India, on the other hand, has, as usual, called on rich countries to take responsibility for financing climate action in poorer and developing countries.

The same countries have repeated the same message in the past, says Honkatukia, who has had a long career as a climate negotiator.

“When one country constantly raises its own demands, it annoys others and makes them demand their own changes as well. That’s when the negotiations stretch, ”he says.

“More and more political attention is being paid to the work of the IPCC, and reports have become more difficult to process. On the other hand, it shows that the weight of the IPCC has increased. ”

However, it seems that the strikes of the opposite shore did not get through at least significant changes.

“It is quite clear that India and Saudi Arabia were awkward, but nothing essential has been left out. I don’t see any harmful waterlogging, ”says Honkatukia.

In the report the researchers list the huge changes that should be implemented immediately in order for them to be as effective as the report calculates.

Firstly, energy production must change. The use of fossil fuels must be significantly curtailed, societies widely electrified and alternative fuels such as hydrogen introduced.

“The right decisions, infrastructure and technology to change the way we live can lead to a 40-70% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050,” said the IPCC Vice President. Priyadarshi Shukla in the bulletin.

On the positive side, the report says a reduction in the price of renewable energy such as wind and solar power. Their prices have fallen as much as 85 percent since 2010.

Similarly, climate finance and investment have risen significantly in recent years.

Large concrete emission reductions will be achieved in cities, especially in construction, and in rural areas by redesigning land use.

Societies should now be rebuilt to be more sustainable, as our current lifestyle cannot be maintained, the report says.

“Climate change is the result of more than a century of unsustainable energy and land use, lifestyles and consumption patterns,” said the IPCC Vice-President. Jim Skea.

Climate issues Senior Adviser to the Finnish Independence Celebration Fund (Sitra) Oras Tynkkynen highlights two major messages from the report. The first is sad: the gap between projected emissions trends and the Paris Agreement is wide.

“It comes as no surprise to anyone that we have a huge journey to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. A lot more needs to be done, ”he says.

On the other hand, according to Tynkkynen, the report now published states much more strongly than before that climate policy has worked – both at the level of promises and implementation. For example, climate action is enshrined in the laws of many countries and emissions pricing is progressing.

“Often the climate debate is grim and it sounds like nothing has been accomplished, but this is not the message of the report,” Tynkkynen says.

“We are on a completely different path than emissions would have been without climate policy.”

According to Tynkkynen, the report now published is more comprehensive than before. For example, the extent to which deforestation and conversion to fields or pastures affects emissions. The text explicitly states that land use measures in Africa, Asia and Latin America have increased emissions.

“Not everything goes ahead with tons of carbon dioxide,” Tynkkynen praises.

At the same time, the report shows that the designs have not gone down easily, Tynkkynen says. The pages are full of footnotes reiterating that there is no one right way to calculate land use emissions. The indications are probably related to the fact that there is a big difference between the emission calculations reported by the countries themselves and the research results.

“If it happened to be a country that has embellished its figures, then of course they would like to underline that there are many different ways to calculate emissions.”