China: the historic XX Congress of the Communist Party is underway
Beijing prepares for the start of the XX Congress of the Chinese Communist Party. Commonly presented as a “conclave”, it is actually a ceremonial event which certifies the decisions already taken by the top positions of the political force which has over 95 million members. One third more than the entire population of Italy. A huge amount.
However, the world is waiting to know the decisions, which this time seem obvious on leadership: Xi Jinping will receive a third term as general secretary, head of the military commission and president of the People’s Republic. An event of historical significance given that for decades the practice imposed a limit on the two mandates. But China’s future positioning on the domestic and international fronts is also at stake.
The XX Congress will meet starting from 16 October. About 2,300 delegates from all over China, representing all members, will gather at the Great Hall of the People. In addition to the leadership, the delegates will be called to appoint the 370 members of the Central Committee, the 25 people who make up the Politburo and the seven members of the Politburo Standing Committee, that is to say the elite of the elite of Chinese politics. Those who really decide, in any case under the guidance of the top hierarchical Xi.
Personnel decisions have been negotiated in advance, through weeks and months of informal bargaining and policies. The assembled delegates will give their full approval to a series of documents and measures communicated by the Party, including China’s political direction and economic agenda for the next five years, similarly worked out in advance.
But here is the real crux of the matter: understand China’s political and economic orientation. Xi Jinping’s opening report will clarify a lot, just as it will be fundamental to see the final composition of the Standing Committee and the Politburo, to understand if, as expected, Xi’s influence will continue to extend further with an enlargement of his already very wide magic circle.
Constitutional reforms and Xi Jinping’s plans for the next 5 years
Equally essential to understand what will contain the constitutional amendment already announced and which will be approved in Congress. These amendments are considered crucial as the document contains some of the most important guidelines followed by the party. Furthermore, it enshrines the political theories of all the main leaders of the party, from Mao Zedong to Xi Jinping. In 1982, for example, a revision of the constitution explicitly stated that the party it prohibited any kind of personality cult.
The constitutional amendments were seen as an important step by Xi to consolidate his power. After tweaking in recent years, the statute now lists Xi Jinping’s “Thinking of Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era” as one of the party’s guiding principles. The amendments also included the “Xi Jinping’s Thoughts on Strengthening the Armed Forces”. It is the first time that such specific terminology has been introduced about the armed forces and a specific leader. The policy signed by Xi, the Belt and Road Initiative, was also added.
It is now expected that Xi’s status can be further elevated by summarizing the formula on his doctrine by simply referring to it as “Xi’s thought”. An honor previously given only to Mao Zedong, of which among other things Xi could also receive the title of “helmsman” or “leader of the people”. Possible signs also on Taiwan, with Beijing’s increasingly declared ambitions also from a military point of view.
The world is also or perhaps above all observing signals on the economy. Chinese President Xi Jinping could consolidate a historic political turn at the Communist Party congress, raising the status of national security even at the expense of economic growth. Every party leader since Jiang Zemin in 2002 has used his congressional speech twice a decade to claim that economic development is the party’s “top priority”.. According to analysts, Xi could abandon this sentence in favor of a slogan that calls for “balancing development and security”.
In Xi Jinping’s China, the primacy belongs to politics and not to the economy. This is demonstrated by the rectification campaign conducted on the private and digital sector, but also by the insistence on the zero Covid strategy which seems destined to remain despite the impact on the economy. The China of the future seems destined to pursue more and more self-sufficiency, also due to the protectionist pressures coming from the US of Joe Biden, especially on the technological and semiconductor front. Decoupling is still far and perhaps impossible, but certainly Beijing’s trajectory seems increasingly difficult to contain as Washington would like to do.
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