“Neither by hook nor by crook. They will never rule this country again.”
This was the warning that the number two of Chavismo, Diosdado Cabello, issued a few days ago referring to the intentions of the opposition to achieve a presidential victory in 2024.
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But this message is not only accompanied by words -in themselves very clear and direct- but by actions that are under development in Venezuela and that concern only a part of society, since the majority is busy surviving.
It is about imitation of the Nicaraguan model, as recognized by analysts, exacerbating political disqualifications, sentences and other political-legal instruments that allow Chavismo to remain in power, at least for a new six-year presidential term.
The opposition, which had played abstentionism, always weak and dispersed, decided a few months ago to head towards primary elections scheduled for October 22 with which they intend to elect a candidate capable of facing Nicolás Maduro and trying to emerge victorious.
According to data from the Polianalítica consultancy, based on projections made from abroad, the intention of votes in the primaries would be 53 percent for María Corina Machado; 22 percent, Benjamin Rausseo; 10 percent, Manuel Rosales; 8 percent, Henrique Capriles and 3 percent, Freddy Superlano.
According to the data, this would be one of the reasons for the radical attitude of Chavismo, which did not calculate the push that the oppositionist María Corina Machado would have and who is considered its main enemy. She, in fact, has surprised with her rising popularity, especially in social strata D and E, considered Chavistas.
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For this reason, Chavismo seeks to stop the Machado phenomenon, especially when Maduro’s popularity has been in the limits of 20 percent for years.
In fact, the National Assemblywith an official majority, announced the renewal of the National Electoral Councill (CNE), whose term is in force, and who had precisely been asked for assistance to advance the opposition primaries. “The first thing is that this surprise action changes the political tableau”says by the way the political scientist and analyst Ángel Medina.
This Thursday, its eight pro-government rectors, including principals and substitutes, presented their resignation alleging that the country is undergoing a process of dialogue and negotiation, for which they are willing to leave their posts. The two opposition rectors did not sign the statement, but they have not offered statements either.
It is up to Parliament, chaired by the pro-government Jorge Rodríguez, to initiate the process to receive the applications and name a new electoral body.
“With a new CNE, the government is going to try to create a new figure like that of the remembered Tibisay Lucenabecause this CNE does not generate the fear or the impact of the rector Lucena”, or at least that is what the political scientist Daniel Arias believes.
The political scientist adds that the three new principal rectors must be very important figures of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) “who will surely cause a stir because they will be relevant.”
With a new CNE, the government is going to try to create a new figure like that of the remembered Tibisay Lucena, because this CNE does not generate the fear or impact of the rector Lucena
If this is the case, even if the National Commission on Primaries, made up of prominent civil society academics, insists on having technical assistance from the CNE by October, it will be unlikely that there will be confidence in the process, as has been stated by candidates such as María Corina Machado, who has not refused to participate in the process, but does question its credibility.
These diatribes are precisely part of the government’s strategy. “Without a doubt, it is more than evident that a delaying tactic for the purposes of the primary elections seeks to demotivate and demobilize the opposition conglomerate that, due to mistakes made many times, has sown mistrust in the electoral system and that is used by the ruling party for its stage. more favorable”, explains the political analyst Jesús Yánez.
While the realignment of the CNE is underway, on the other hand, the Supreme Court of Justice (TSJ) would also be doing the same, preparing disqualifications or declaring processes such as primaries inadmissible.
📌 Jesús Maria Casal on the primaries:
👤 The identity of the voters will still be protected with the CNE.
🗳️ There will be an independent scrutiny of the manual vote.
✅ Disabled candidates will be able to participate.
🌎 Venezuelans will be able to vote in 81 cities around the world. pic.twitter.com/dygjSBOFK3— (@polianalitica) June 15, 2023
“The primaries, without having started, have already become a demolisher of candidates,” Arias insists, stating that the government “He is going to have to play in a Nicaragua scheme” using the political and legal to neutralize candidates, leaders and campaign financiers.
If the previous prognoses are true, they coincide with the approach of Andrés Izarra, former minister of Hugo Chávez, now in exile.
Izarra argues that in the face of 2024 there will be a “hyperpolarization” since the CNE will be headed by Francisco Amelliach, a strong PSUV. While the opposition will be united around María Corina Machado, “like it or not”, and an entrenched madurismo willing to do anything to not lose power. “The Nicaraguan stage will look like a ‘kindergarten’”.
The role of the international community
Maduro has entered the international scene in the last year. The Bogotá conference showed that Venezuela is interested in solving its political conflict as long as the United States and Europe lift the sanctions against them.
And if there were a new severe international pressure, the truth is that there does not seem to be much concern in Miraflores because Maduro is likely to resist due to an interesting factor: the support of Colombia and Brazil.
In addition, since it is the same election year in the United States, a preview of elections presidential elections could be on stage due to fears of a return of Donald Trumpwho has already confessed his claims, at least with Venezuelan oil.
A new cycle of sanctions would generate shortages, a lack of fuel and other problems that would aggravate the crisis in the country and with it social discontent, detrimental to a Chavismo campaign, explains Arias.
On the other hand, there are those who believe that the international community should seek to build as many negotiating bridges in order to achieve an electoral schedule and “allow the country to be reintegrated into the world trade scenario,” considers Yánez.
After all, it is without a doubt democracy that remains at permanent risk in Venezuela. “Democracy is not only elections, but these are an important thing within the democratic system. And altering it hurts him,” says Medina.
ANA MARIA RODRIGUEZ BRAZON
WEATHER CORRESPONDENT
CARACAS
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