Charles Kupchan: “Civil society is now in shock, but the post-Putin remains an unknown factor”

The professor: «Biden said the right things and the trip to Europe was a success. Beijing makes a difficult balancing act, offering Moscow only diplomatic support “

FROM THE CORRESPONDENT FROM WASHINGTON. «Biden is handling the Ukrainian question in the right way, both from a strategic point and from a political point of view. And the trip to Europe was a success, ”says Charles Kupchan, a political scientist with the Council on Foreign Relations.

Even the Warsaw speech? Twenty-seven minutes disappeared from the minds of observers who focused on the final nine words with which Biden called for Putin’s removal and which yesterday he said were dictated “by moral indignation” …
“It is understandable that the final expression attracted attention, but I think too much importance is attached to it.”

Because?
«Putin does not base his calculations and does not base his actions on the conflict on what Biden said, but on the situation on the ground. Biden said what many people think, not only in the world but also inside Russia, but they don’t dare to say. And that a Russia without Putin would be better is not a thought that has only just emerged after the invasion has taken place. Biden’s speech doesn’t change things. Having said that, it does not seem far-fetched to say that Putin will not survive this conflict in the long run ”.

Do you imagine him dethroned or with reduced power?
«The situation in Russia is becoming more difficult every day, more and more citizens at the cost of ending up in prison are publicly exposed, many soldiers are dying in the Ukrainian plains and among these there are high-ranking soldiers. Sanctions bite at every level. We are in an unprecedented scenario and Putin’s hold on power is certainly affected ».

What outcomes can the crisis have then with a weakened Putin? Is there an emerging leadership?
«Difficult to make predictions. On the one hand, there is the Putinian system built mainly by personnel from the security and military fields. Even if a change of leader were to occur, there would be no major upheavals in the management of politics. There is a second option, linked to the awakening of civil society triggered by the conflict in Ukraine. They are people who have had enough of corruption and oligarchs and are fed up with this Eurasian nationalism. And they ask for more ».

Who has more room to prevail?
“Looking at Russian history, I would put aside optimism and I think the first option is more likely.”

Biden in Warsaw highlighted the theme of the clash between freedom and the values ​​of the West and the obscurantism of autocracies. What role will China play?
«Beijing is walking on a tightrope. On the one hand, it supports Putin because Russia is his biggest partner in the world. By supporting it, it increases its dependence on Beijing and at the same time keeps Western gazes away from the Pacific. On the other hand, however, China does not want to risk being expelled from globalization and the market and therefore its behavior is dictated by not triggering the so-called secondary sanctions. It is a difficult balancing act in which Beijing offers diplomatic support to Moscow, but avoids taking sides by giving military and economic support in order to avoid American retaliation ».

How much do you consider possible the creation of a post-war Ukrainian world – always bearing in mind that an ending and which, above all, should be written – divided into two spheres? On the one hand the USA and its European allies, on the other the Chinese and Russians.
“I don’t think we will end up in a similar scenario and the reason is that the world is too complex and confusing today. Venezuela has returned to dialogue with the US for oil, thus emerging from a situation of exclusion; an important role is played by the Gulf monarchies. Many countries in Southeast Asia and East Asia are watching without taking sides, let’s think about the ambiguities of India. Too difficult to reduce everything and everyone into two blocks ».

Contrast on values, but collaboration on economic issues?
“There are issues that go beyond ideological fences and require cooperation. Climate change, health issues and pandemics, nuclear proliferation, including the cases of North Korea and Iran: these are issues that cannot be solved, much less dealt with in a world rigidly divided into two spheres “.

Western allies have said that if Putin uses chemical weapons there will be “a strong response”. But nobody went into details. What does it mean?
«Biden is doing everything possible to prevent the conflict from spreading, hence the opposition to the no fly zones. And the strong response will still be limited to prevent another world war ».

Difficult to think of new sanctions, however …
“There are other options. Technically, America could hit Russian units responsible for banned weapons attacks with air strikes or long-range missiles as it did in Syria against military installations; or the targets could be other Russian units involved in the conflict ».

It would be an escalation …
“Yes, but I emphasize that I said what America could technically do to respond in a” strong “way. Not what he will do. “