W.hen, as previously claimed, the elections in Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate would have been a vote on the candidacy for chancellor, then there would now be no more doubts: Winfried Kretschmann would have to do it with the Greens, Malu Dreyer with the SPD. But that wasn’t even an issue. Dreyer understandably prefers to regulate political traffic in Mainz with a traffic light. The Berlin ghost tour with the comrades pulling to the left in the party leadership leaves it to Olaf Scholz. And Kretschmann, too, prefers to stay the state grandfather in Stuttgart than to deal with the government stress in Berlin that the Greens are facing – especially since his party already has two ambitious forces who want to become at least Vice Chancellor.
It is increasingly likely that the Greens will be back on the government bench in Berlin from autumn onwards. Whether CDU / CSU or SPD: Anyone who wants to govern will hardly get past the Greens as a partner. In a traffic light coalition and in an alliance with the SPD and the Left Party, they would be the strongest party and thus even the Chancellor, depending on the situation. If the soaring of the Greens continues and the SPD recovers somewhat, the “majority beyond the Union”, which is already being cheered in the SPD, will move into the realm of possibility.
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