IAt the entrance to the CDU headquarters there is a larger-than-life cardboard figure of Konrad Adenauer, founding father of the party and founding chancellor of the Federal Republic. The figure is based on a black and white photo, it looks something from yesterday. If this is a subtle message from the outgoing politicians at the CDU headquarters to Friedrich Merz, it is at least ambiguous. Some also consider Merz to be a man from yesterday. A conservative millionaire from the low mountain range Sauerland. His previous political highlight, the election as parliamentary group leader in 2000, is almost as long ago as the end of his first career. That came when he inevitably had to hand over his post to Angela Merkel two years later because she had become party leader.
Friedrich Merz is much younger than Adenauer was when he was elected chairman. The later chancellor from Rhöndorf was already 76 at the time, Merz is 66. Nevertheless, there are quite a few in the Union who consider Merz to be a transitional candidate, for reasons of age alone. But one can also deceive oneself. Merz had to make three attempts to finally get to the top of the CDU. A whole series of talented and younger CDU politicians tried to stop him – Jens Spahn, Norbert Röttgen, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer and Armin Laschet. Finally, the former Chancellery Minister Helge Braun entered the race, whose political weight was then estimated at 12.2 percent.
The personalized somersault backwards?
Merz’s re-entry into party politics coincided with the twilight of the Angela Merkel who put him aside 20 years ago. Since then he has stuck to his applications with great stamina. Now, at the provisional end of an orientation phase for the CDU of more than three years, he gets the chance to give his party new, conservative orientation without ignoring progress.
Merz was often described, even by opponents within the party, as a personified flip backwards into the 1980s. Yes, he had views on migration, the role of women or same-sex partnerships that many in the party no longer share. But what sets him apart is that he has reconsidered and corrected views. He has remained true to his principles when it comes to foreign policy issues or towards the extreme fringes of the political spectrum. The fact that he is one of those who advocate the social market economy could also be good for the Union.
It will soon become clear whether Merz has a longer future than its two predecessors. His election by the vast majority of the 1001 delegates is certain. But the decisions about which course the Union will take are not only made in the Adenauer House, but also in the parliamentary group and in the federal states. Especially in those where the CDU still has prime ministers.
Bitter lesson for Brinkhaus
As party leader, Merz will only have an impact and the CDU will have a chance of winning the chancellorship if he also takes over the leadership of the opposition. That was the case with Chairman Helmut Kohl, who gave up his position as Prime Minister to first become Group Chairman and then Chancellor. That was the case with Merkel, who reached the chancellorship three years after Merz’s replacement. That was a bitter lesson for Merz. He will now have to give it directly to the acting faction leader Ralph Brinkhaus.
He’s still playing for time and hopes for the CSU. Brinkhaus came to the top of the parliamentary group when he took advantage of the bad mood against Merkel’s longtime ally Volker Kauder in 2018. After the election, he secured good spokesman positions for trusted confidants in the severely depleted CDU and CSU faction community. Not every vacancy was consistently geared towards the future. Brinkhaus organizes his followers carefully. In addition, the East Westphalian relies on CSU allies. Should Markus Söder consider running for chancellor again, he might prefer shared power in the sister party to united leadership under Merz.
It is always said that the decision will not be made until after Easter in a friendly discussion between those involved. But nobody really believes that, if only because such phrases about Söder’s bitter power struggle with Laschet are still well and horribly remembered. The smoldering power struggle is already weakening the work of the opposition. Influential people in the parliamentary group and party are busy waiting, waiting on the phone for a long time, negotiating confidentially behind the scenes. At almost every performance, the question arises. It must be answered quickly. The Union wants to become a strong opposition. But nothing will come of it with a split leadership. Merz must dare to give way to Brinkhaus.
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