The 5-M begins another stage in the PP of Pablo Casado. After three years of unstable and convulsive internal leadership, after collecting in 2018 the ashes of a “defibrillated party” and living together almost every four months with electoral campaigns of all kinds, the president of the PP wants to face the last quarter of this year as the of the reactivation of his alternative project to that of Pedro Sánchez. Their internal surveys place the PP already in a technical tie, just two points below the PSOE. And he intends to cut the final arreón thanks to the success of the 4-M of his friend Isabel Díaz Ayuso in Madrid, who wants to offer as a possible example of the reunification of the center-right and the wear that he predicts for Sánchez due to, as he repeats, mismanagement of vaccines, the economic crisis and growing public insecurity. Casado is committed to giving Ayuso even more power and backing her for the party’s presidency in Madrid.
Pablo Casado has a plan to relaunch his PP. He had it when he was presented in July 2018 to the primary congress in which he won Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría and he has not yet been able to execute him for different reasons and internal and external excuses. The COUNTRY has consulted sources in its most direct environment what its intentions are from now on.
Madrid and the 4-M
Pablo Casado will not campaign daily in Madrid, but he will do half a dozen events, some with Ayuso (opening and closing included) and others with the mayor of the capital, José Luis Martínez Almeida, his national spokesman. The clear triumph of Ayuso in Madrid on 4-M is the key to the new roadmap of the re-founding of the PP that Casado intends. The popular leader knows that he is playing it again at the polls, because he will be blamed so much for the defeat if Ayuso does not manage to govern because a pact of the left is forged, as he will not be “contemptuously” if the victory is attributed only to the team of the president of Madrid. Count on it.
The leader of the PP often speaks with the local leader and neither of them forgets their New Generations years in which the towns of the Community to which no one attended were kicked. They are still friends and he opted for her candidacy even when he received negative opinions from José María Aznar and Esperanza Aguirre, who now seem like his biggest fans. Later, in addition, he recommended several advisers to his Government, such as Javier Fernández Lasquetty or Enrique López.
In the direct environment of Casado they recognize, yes, that Ayuso is no longer the same as she was then, when she owed him everything. The “monster” has grown with the advice of Miguel Ángel Rodríguez and thanks to the attacks that the left and La Moncloa concentrate on it. But they also remember that in politics things sometimes change very fast.
On September 22, Ayuso was interviewed in Onda Cero by Carlos Alsina a few days after the famous meeting and photograph of the flags with Pedro Sánchez in the Puerta del Sol and she was almost speechless when the journalist snapped at her if she did not believe that the position could be “too big” for her. After a few seconds he replied: “It is not that it is too big for me, I just think that it is a very difficult situation that any leader who is ruling knows well. I only think about being able to solve it, how to solve it: what is the next measure, from where can I extract a new resource ”.
In Genoa 13, the central headquarters of the PP, they still distrust Rodríguez and his influences, they maintain that they have made it known, but they understand that now it would be much worse to lose the jewel in the crown of popular power and, above all, “the showcase ”To expose the concentration of the center-right vote.
If Ayuso wins and governs after 4-M, Casado is willing to support her if he decides to also take command of the PP organization in Madrid, according to direct sources from the popular leadership. The PP of Madrid is a party long gone. And the mayor of the capital has also shown some interest in that position. The congress to renew that organization in Madrid is pending and could be convened by the end of the year.
The betrayal and relationship with Arrimadas
It costs Casado a world to attack the leader of Cs. Even after what happened in Murcia, where Cs agreed to a motion of censure against the popular president without notifying him until it was already public. Arrimadas called him first about fait accompli and then, when the motion was frustrated thanks to the signing by the PP of three defectors from Cs, to reproach him for that attitude. Casado did not give credit to that last contact and has recalled these days the desperate attempts in the summer of 2020 to agree to a merger of both formations with several relevant assignments.
In the PP of Casado they assure that they offered Arrimadas the full integration of both formations to the point of being willing to renounce the mythical popular logo of the blue seagull, the headquarters of Genoa 13, the spokesperson in Congress and several deputy general secretariats in the executive. They only demanded to stay with the PP brand and with the general secretary of the new party. Arrimadas denies it, but without going very deep into the details. That offer has already waned. They believe that integration will begin to take shape on 4-M in Madrid from the polls.
Rule without Vox
The national leadership of the PP would like Ayuso to obtain, as predicted by most polls, results that would allow him to govern alone and with the support of Vox from outside. Something that has already happened in other autonomous communities or in the capital. Ayuso is less blunt in these vetoes, although now in the campaign he repeats that he would like to enjoy a sufficient majority to impose his criteria without external conditions. Casado abruptly broke with Santiago Abascal in the motion of censure in October and that break has not been repaired. They still don’t speak to each other. In his team they defend that this was not an emotional decision, but a very thoughtful one. Its objective at the national level is to subsume the Cs voter, much of that of Vox, and cause fewer eruptions than now in the nationalist electorate, both Catalan and Basque. This is how it would be necessary to understand some public interventions that he had in the recent Catalan campaign and the attempts at rapprochement to clear up misgivings with the PNV leadership.
The internal situation
Casado has led the PP since July 2018, but feels that he has not yet had time or opportunity to consolidate his project. In his environment they point out that he collected the “dead” and “defibrillated” formation, with a forecast of votes lower than the 66 seats in which the PP sank in April 2019. That then he had to face a second year of internal consolidation and that in the third year he has had to deal with the crisis of the pandemic, which has reinforced and directed all eyes towards the central and regional governments, which have been responsible for managing the virus.
Many popular regional barons have had more role and projection in this period than the national president of the PP. In this phase, in addition, the pending organization and the premeditated renewal of the provincial congresses of the party have coincided, which are always more conflictive than the autonomous ones. In autumn the National Convention is scheduled, which Casado designs as the culmination in which to demonstrate that the organization already dominates, that it has an alternative project and program to sanchismo, that the re-foundation is not a chimera. For this, in addition, it is considered that the long-awaited change of headquarters may take place to a smaller one, with fewer offices and more open spaces than the current one, which is to be rented and not sold.
Casado has entrusted this entire internal process, which has had some confrontational episodes in the provinces of Castilla y León and Andalusia, to his right hand, Teodoro García Egea, whose forms have been questioned by several barons. Casado not only maintains, but has increased in recent months his conviction in Egea’s work capabilities.
Faced with criticism of the lack of weight, gray hair, seniority and level in his executive, Casado reminds those who speak them that he has several former ministers and former high-ranking officials of various right-wing governments around him; that formed that team after the party congress with various compromises and, above all, that it has reaped repeated rejections from those responsible for the economic or work area that it has not been able to maintain, such as former ministers Ramón Escolano or Fátima Báñez, because they have preferred to go to the private sector.
Technical tie with Sánchez
The PP has for a couple of weeks a survey commissioned at the national level that portrays them in a situation of technical tie with the PSOE, with a range of 27% to 25% of the votes, and a band of deputies that would oscillate between the 115 and 110 seats, for now always in favor of the Socialists. There are no general elections in sight, although the internal experts who advise the popular leadership do not trust what could happen at the end of the year if there is a bad result from the PSOE and Podemos in Madrid; if complex vaccine management continues; if the economic and unemployment consequences of this crisis begin to be registered; and if a certain sensation of citizen insecurity grows, which the popular ones predict.
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