Zero emission cars from 2035
In recent days, the European Parliament has definitively approved i new targets for the reduction of CO2 emissions from new passenger cars and light commercial vehiclesin line with the objectives of the climate neutrality to be achieved by 2050. What has been approved provides for the obligation for new passenger cars and new light commercial vehicles not to produce any CO2 emissions from 2035, with the final goal of reducing quantified emissions by 100% in 2021 and with the Interim emission reduction targets for 2030 of 55% for passenger cars and 50% for vans.
First of all, it must be pointed out, for the near future, that it will be possible to continue to own a car that does not emit zero CO2. Indeed the The new rules do not require that by 2035 all cars on the road are zero-emissions, but that cars (and light commercial vehicles) produced after that date are fuel-free. The will of the legislator, since the average life of a car is 15 years, is that from 2035 it is necessary to purchase CO2-neutral vehicles from a climate point of view to allow the achievement of the objectives set for 2050. Having said this premise, let’s move on to deal with problems of a different nature.
Vehicle fleet and electricity consumption
An estimate by ACI for 2022 indicates the Italian car fleet consisting of just under 40 million vehicles. Considering a turnover of 2 million vehicles/year, a very risky estimate in itself, from thermal to electric in twenty years it is possible to consider the modernization of the Italian vehicular fleet complete. Considering an average annual consumption per electric car of around 2,000 kWh, the annual production needed to power 40 million vehicles would amount to around 80 billion kWh (Terawatt hour).
Important numbers if we compare the consumption recorded by Terna, the company that manages the national transmission grid, in 2022 whose energy needs in Italy amounted to 316.8 billion kWh. That is to say, 25% of national demand should be dedicated to the consumption of electric cars. It is clear and evident that this exercise is estimated under expressly unfavorable conditions, but the result provides an important indication of what can be achieved in the next few years if we want to increase the national electricity requirement by a quarter, excluding distribution, a topic we will address later.
Today I would like us to focus on the opportunity to carry out this epochal change of habits on the conditions of mobility. In a 2021 interview, Terna declared “that the long-term strategy published at the end of 2020 by the Government and transmitted to the EU envisages a reduction in the vehicle fleet in circulation by 2050, from the current 40 million to 24 million, thanks above all to the development of local public and sharing in the city. Of these, 19 will be electric and therefore will generate an additional requirement of 38 TWh per year, negligible numbers compared to the electricity consumption estimated at that date for 700 TWh” (700 billion kWh), or almost doubling current requirements.
If we think of the data released by Istat, through an “ad hoc” survey, on the mobility habits of Italians in the period April-June 2022, it is clear how still today the prevalent use of the means of transport by Italians is confirmed by the private car with a modal shift of 83%. This means that the use of the car continues to be predominant and hard to take off (i.e. go back to pre Pandemic data) the use of public transport, aspect also recently certified by ASSTRA, the trade association of local public transport companies.
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