With the official start of the campaign, scheduled for Tuesday (16.Aug.2022), candidates for president will increase the volume of their activities to win votes and intensify the dispute for “theme” of the election. The ability to guide public debate is decisive in the presidential race.
O Power 360 summarizes below the likely movements of the main candidates for president in the 1st week of the campaign and what should be the focus of their speeches. Advertising on TV and radio starts later, on the 26th of this month.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
the former president Squid (PT) focuses on economics and assistance policies. A leader in research, he evokes his governments (2003-2010), when there was economic growth and social advances, to counteract the Jair Bolsonaro (PL).
The PT will likely avoid getting into topics related to customs, one of Bolsonaro’s favorite arenas. “We will continue to discuss the people’s problems, which are real”told the report the deputy Rui Falcão (PT), one of those responsible for the communication of Lula’s campaign.
First lady Michelle Bolsonaro has participated in her husband’s campaign to try to reduce Lula’s advantage among women. She has also mobilized evangelical sectors. In the last week, she used the PT’s connection with religions of African origin to try to increase the evangelical rejection of the former president.
“It’s a smokescreen. We are not going to wage religious war, religion is one thing and politics is another. Lula made the law of religious freedom”declared Falcao.
The submission of proposals should be for TV and radio advertising. Lula may attend the inauguration of Alexandre de Moraes as president of the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) on Tuesday. Other than that, he has the following appointments scheduled for the next few days:
- 2nd Wednesday (Aug 15) – public class at USP, in São Paulo, at 5 pm;
- tuesday (Aug 16) – visit to the Volkswagen factory in São Bernardo do Campo, at 2 pm;
- wednesday (Aug 17) – meeting with micro and small entrepreneurs, in São Paulo, at 9:30 am;
- thursday (Aug 18) – rally in Belo Horizonte, at 6 pm;
- Saturday (20.Aug) – rally in São Paulo, at 11 am.
Jair Bolsonaro
In 2nd place in polls of voting intentions, Bolsonaro will invest in publicizing his government’s achievements, especially in the economic area.
Auxílio Brasil, which replaced Bolsa Família, will be one of the most explored topics. The program was boosted with the approval of the PEC of kindnesses 80 days before the elections.
On Friday (Aug 12), Bolsonaro went to Sol Nascente, one of the poorest administrative regions in the Federal District, to record a campaign video with a family benefiting from Auxílio Brasil.
The focus on government actions in the first electoral commercials is part of Bolsonaro’s electoral HQ strategy.
The president will also evoke the knife attack he was targeted during the 2018 campaign. He will launch his campaign in Juiz de Fora (MG) scheduled for 11 am on Tuesday (Aug 16). This is the city where the attack took place.
In addition, the president will try to strengthen antipetismo by making comparisons with the government of Dilma Rousseff (EN). Unpopular, she was impeached in 2016 during a recession.
Bolsonaro must say he did more for the economy even with the pandemic. And that, at the time of Dilma, the country lost jobs because of the “Corruption Crisis”. It will use the recent advance of formal employment as an argument.
The president will also seek to stimulate in the electorate a feeling of fear in relation to a possible new Lula government. This measure, however, must be taken at a later stage of the campaign, when there is electoral propaganda on TV and radio.
Bolsonaro was also invited to the inauguration of Moraes. The event is on the same day as the act in Juiz de Fora.
Ciro & Simone Tebet
3rd place in the survey PowerDate released on the 4th of August, Ciro Gomes (PDT) will have street activities in São Paulo this week. On Friday (Aug 19), you must go to Rio de Janeiro.
The candidate will maintain criticism of Lula and Bolsonaro. He accuses both of having personalist political projects. Ciro claims that he is the only one with a project from a known country, published in a book in 2020.
It will also mention the minimum income program enrolled in your government plan. On Wednesday (10.Aug.2022), he stated that the benefit amount would be R$1,000 per family.
the senator Simone Tebet (MDB), 4th in the latest poll PowerDate, will be in São Paulo this Monday (15.Aug). She has the following commitments:
- 9 am – meeting with members of the Institute for Retail Development;
- 2:30 pm – campaign coordination meeting;
- 4:30 pm – presentation of the government program;
- 7:30 pm – event at the Homs Club on the participation of women in politics.
At least in the 1st week, she should focus her speech on her government plan and the need for female representation in politics. Tebet’s deputy is also a woman (Senator Mara Gabriellifrom the PSDB).
as showed the Power 360 the focus of Simone Tebet’s government program should be on programs aimed at early childhood and on the expansion of social programs.
In addition to Lula, Bolsonaro, Ciro and Simone, there are also candidates for president registered with the TSE: Jose Maria Eymael (DC), Luiz Felipe D’Avila (New), Leo Pericles (UP), Pablo Marçal (Pros), Roberto Jefferson (PTB), Sofia Manzano (PCB), Soraya Thronicke (Brazil Union) and Vera Lucia (PSTU).
PowerDate
Search PowerDate held from July 31 to August 2, 2022 shows that the framework for the presidential succession remains stable. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) has 43% of voting intentions in the 1st round, while Jair Bolsonaro (PL) marks 35%. The other candidates, together, add up to 15%.
Ciro Gomes registers 7% of voting intentions. Simone Tebet mark 4% and André Janonestwo%. Eymael and Felipe d’Avila have 1% each. The other names tested did not have enough mentions to score.
The survey was conducted from July 31 to August 2, 2022. 3,500 people aged 16 years or older were interviewed in 322 municipalities in the 27 units of the Federation. A parametric weighting was applied to compensate for disproportionalities in the variables of sex, age, education level, region and income. The margin of error is plus or minus 2 percentage points.
The interviews were carried out by telephone (for landlines and cell phones), using the URA (Audible Response Unit) system, in which the interviewee listens to recorded questions and responds through the keyboard of the device. The confidence interval of the study is 95%.
For readability, search results have been rounded. Because of this process, it is possible that the sum of some of the results is different from 100. Differences between the total frequencies and the percentages in tables of crossover of variables may appear due to non-response occurrences. This study was carried out with the resources of the PowerDatea research company that is part of the media group Power360 Journalism. The results are published in an editorial partnership with the TV Cultura. The research is registered with the TSE under number BR-08398/2022.
RESEARCH AGGREGATOR
O Power 360 maintains a collection with thousands of surveys with known methodologies and on which it was possible to verify the origin of the information. There have been studies carried out since the 2000 municipal elections. This is the largest and longest-running survey of electoral research available on the Brazilian internet.
The database is interactive and allows you to follow the progress of each candidate. Access by clicking here.
Research information began to be compiled by the journalist Fernando RodriguesEditor-in-Chief of Power 360on its website, in the year 2000. To access the old page with the surveys, click here.
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