ANDIn politics a week can be an eternity. The phrase, immortalized by British Prime Minister Harold Wilson in 1964 to describe the dizzying change that only seven days can cause in the uncertain terrain of an election campaign, regained its full meaning when describing the roller coaster ride that the race for the White House in the United States seems to have entered.
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From being a party in a tailspin and heading for certain defeat in November, the Democrats rose from the ashes in the blink of an eye after the president’s sudden resignation Joe Biden to the nomination last Sunday and the subsequent coronation of Vice President Kamala Harris as the most viable option to succeed him.
Until this Friday, and almost in record time, Harris had earned enough support to become the party’s nominee in the upcoming race against former President Donald Trump.
US Vice President Kamala Harris.
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If all goes as planned, the vice president will be confirmed virtually on Thursday, two weeks before the party’s National Convention, which kicks off on August 19 in Chicago.
But beyond the specific event that triggered Biden’s decision, the most surprising thing has been the evolution of the campaign itself, which took a 180-degree turn, probably towards the unknown.
So great has been the turn from defending Biden’s age and his cognitive abilities to govern for four more years, Democrats are now talking about a “generational shift” as Republicans answer questions about nominating the oldest candidate in history (Trump is 78 years old while Harris is only 59).
Until a week ago, the Democratic Party was dying. Even the most loyal of the party felt it. But Biden’s departure and Harris’ rise have given them hope.
“Until a week ago, the Democratic Party was dying. It was something that even the most faithful felt. But Biden’s departure and Harris’s rise have given them hope. “It’s like a bolt of lightning has struck and energized them and it feels a bit like the moment the country experienced when Barack Obama won the nomination in 2008 and then swept the election. It’s not at all clear that the same thing will happen. But the dynamic has changed, and dramatically so,” says Democratic strategist Adam Parkhomenko.
Something, at least, that has translated into levels of activism not seen since that campaign 16 years ago. In the 48 hours following the president’s resignation, The party raised more than $100 million in donations – more than Trump did in the entire month of June – and, according to the campaign, added 170,000 new volunteers.
This weekend, 2,300 events were planned across the country, with a unified message that Harris herself has been transmitting at the top of her lungs this week.
Joe Biden addresses the nation to explain his withdrawal from the presidential race.
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“We are facing a huge decision. Trump wants to take us back to a past that was worse. Our bet is on the future,” said the vice president after receiving the support of several of the country’s largest unions.
The wave behind Harris was particularly strong among the country’s youngest electorate – those under 30 – a segment of the population that did not connect with either candidate. but after Biden’s announcement, they flooded social media with messages of support for the former prosecutor and former senator from California.
How is Kamala Harris doing in the US polls?
As the week went on, the first polls also appeared trying to measure the Harris phenomenon and its impact on the race.
Although the results do not clear the way, they did confirm significant movements. While Trump remains ahead in most of the votes, Harris’s rise has narrowed his lead considerably.
In the New York Times-Sienna College poll released Thursday, The Republican gets 48 percent of the votes compared to 47 percent for the vice president (within the margin of error). But what is relevant is the change in these three weeks. This same poll, taken at the beginning of July, gave Trump a 6-point lead over a depressed Biden.
The same is seen in another CNN sample where Trump gets 49 percent to Harris’s 46 percent nationally, but loses at least 3 percentage points from past measurements.
The same trend was reflected in the so-called “swing states,” which will define the battle for the White House.
Former President and Republican candidate Donald Trump during a missile strike in North Carolina.
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Leading in all and with numbers outside the margin of error – Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, among others –, Harris’s entry into the race results in virtual ties in three and a narrow lead in the other two, according to a sample conducted by Emerson College Polling.
Even more interesting is the shift that is evident in individual segments of the population such as African Americans, Hispanics, people under 30 and women, where Democrats improve substantially by replacing Biden with Harris. On average, a 5-point increase in each of these groups, which could be vital in December.
While Trump has a ceiling, Harris has not yet reached hers and can continue to grow
Of course, her name also caused a certain deterioration in the preferences of people over 40 and men, which would explain why her rise is gradual and not meteoric.
But, as CNN’s accompanying analysis said, “What the numbers say is not that Trump is the underdog or that Harris’ path is clear. What they show is that Harris’s candidacy offers a possible path to victory, which with Biden already seemed closed.”
Parkhomenko also raises another relevant aspect. “While Trump has a ceiling,” says the analyst, “Harris has not yet reached hers and can continue to grow.”
Supporters of Kamala Harris’ campaign.
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Something that is already being seen, for example, in his popularity ratings, which went from less than 38 percent in April and May to more than 46 percent this week.
AND The candidate is likely to receive a new push during the party’s National Convention – which usually serves as a springboard – and with the selection of her vice-presidential running mate. A decision that could also be announced this week and that currently points to two governors of “swing states” who could guarantee him victory in them: Josh Shapiro, from Pennsylvania; or Roy Cooper, from North Carolina. Also mentioned is the governor of Kentucky, Andy Beshear, who without coming from a viable state (he is clearly Republican) could add many votes to him in the central west of the country and with the white middle class.
The road ahead for Kamala Harris in the campaign
Of course, and returning to the initial adage, the race for the Oval Office still has a long way to go.
It is uncertain, for example, how much Harris will be burdened by the fact that she is a woman, African-American and the daughter of immigrants in a country where racism and stereotypes tend to be prevalent.
Vice President and presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris.
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In the US, it is worth noting, a woman has never won the White House and the last time there was a close call – Hillary Clinton in 2016 – it was Trump himself who defeated her, albeit by a narrow margin.
Likewise, as the race progresses, the Republican artillery will be aimed at Harris, who is already called an extreme liberal. and responsible for the failures of the Biden administration. Especially in immigration, since it was an issue that he led at the beginning of the administration, when there was a historic influx of undocumented immigrants.
What is clear, at least for now, is that Democrats are entering the final 100 days of the campaign in a very different position than they were just a week ago.
Whether they will be able to defeat Trump remains to be seen.
SERGIO GOMEZ MASERI – EL TIEMPO Correspondent – WASHINGTON
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