Two things say that war is a concrete hypothesis: first, diplomacy has so far produced nothing (even if there is still an opening for negotiation); and second, there are 100,000 Russian soldiers massed on Ukraine’s eastern border – with field hospitals and large fuel supplies. But to anticipate Putin’s moves, perhaps, it is also useful to understand what citizens think of a possible conflict. I agree? A good indicator could be the Crimea affair, annexed in 2014, which turned out to be a notable success for Putin. Its consensus was relatively low at the time, because the economy was doing badly, but the war caused the Russians to tighten around their leader, whose approval rating shot up by more than 20% in just a few months – reaching a peak in October 2014. 88% (according to data from the Levada Center, an independent electoral group).
There are those who remember, however, that before the attack public opinion was prepared by a riot of propaganda. Today, however – at least according to a recent article by The Economist – on Russian TV screens the possibility of a war is scarcely mentioned. Maybe it’s a clue that a final decision on the conflict hasn’t been made yet. Also because Ukraine is a very different mouthful than Crimea. Kiev’s troops would be overwhelmed, but they are more than capable of making the enemy bleed.
And this is where certain research and polls come in handy. According to the Carneige Moscow Center, a Moscow-based think tank, there is little enthusiasm among members of Russian urban society for a true large-scale war, such as the one that would break out by invading Ukraine.
Then there is another interesting fact: the war is usually up to young people to fight it; yet, according to the Carneige Moscow Center, 66 percent of Russians between the ages of 18 and 24 show a positive or very positive attitude towards Ukraine. In short, he would like friendly relations with the neighboring country. And in any case, the same think tank still suggests, militarization has ceased to be a way to mobilize Russians in support of the government. Citizens, “especially young people”, do not want war.
But if Putin attacks Ukraine anyway, he will have to deal with even heavier financial sanctions. Although the economy has been prepared for the shock – the Kremlin has set aside ample reserves to cushion the blow – it is inevitable that the standard of living of the Russians will drop further. And the social unrest is already mounting. People are worried about rising prices, unemployment, stagnant wages. The Levada Center says the number of people expecting economic protests in Russia has gone from 26 percent a year ago to 43 percent.
Even autocrats must be careful that public opinion does not turn against them. And it could be that the Russian people do not share the same nostalgia for the empires of the past with those who govern them. Last October, another Levada Center poll found that two-thirds of citizens want Russia to be above all “a country with a high standard of living.” And maybe that’s okay if it’s not one of the most powerful.
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