Business cycle The Bank of Finland estimates that energy prices will fall next year and weaken its forecast for recovery slightly: “Uncertainty has grown rapidly”

Bank of Finland According to the economic forecast published on Friday, higher consumer prices, ie inflation, will slow down next year.

The main reasons for the acceleration of inflation are the strong growth in demand and the stagnation of supply. According to the forecast, the inflation rate in Finland will be 2.0 per cent next year.

“Consumers have noticed the high price of crude oil with gasoline pumps, and the rise in wholesale electricity prices has been partly passed on to consumer prices. However, inflation will slow down during 2022, as energy prices are expected to fall and supply bottlenecks to ease, ”says the Bank of Finland’s Forecast Manager. Meri Obstbaum in the bulletin.

Worldwide According to the Bank of Finland, disruptions in supply chains, shortages of components and high raw material prices dull the best blade in the economy. Nevertheless, the economy will continue to grow strongly next year.

According to the new forecast, the economy will grow by 2.6 per cent next year, 1.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.3 per cent in 2024. In the previous forecast, the Bank of Finland estimates that the economy will grow by 2.8 per cent next year.

“Growth is driven in particular by household consumption and boosted corporate investment. However, the recovery is still uneven. The spread of the new virus variant in particular has quickly brought uncertainty to the economy, ”says Obsbaum, forecast manager.

Confirm Despite the recent economic downturn, the structure of the economy will hold back economic growth over the long term. The Bank of Finland estimates that the rapid improvement in employment will level off after the economic upturn.

“Employment growth is slowed by a lack of suitable labor, which makes it difficult to fill vacancies. Unemployment is still higher than before the coronary crisis, and many have had a long way to go. If the matching problems widen, the increase in job vacancies will not lead to a significant drop in unemployment, ”says Obstbaum.

The encounter problem arises when the requirements of job vacancies and the skills of job seekers are poorly matched. Another feature of the problem is that employees are not ready to move to another location because of work.