Business cycle Omron transformation weighs on the confidence of consumers and businesses

In the EK confidence indicator, confidence fell for the first time since February.

Mixed Consumer and business confidence have been clearly declining in December compared to November. According to Statistics Finland, the reading of the consumer confidence indicator was -3.5, compared to 1.2 in November and 2.7 in October.

The confidence reading thus fell below the long-term average of -1.7.

All four components of the consumer confidence indicator deteriorated markedly in December compared with November. Expectations of one’s own and especially the Finnish economy were weak. Chief Economist of Handelsbanken Finland Timo Hirvonen estimates that the coronavirus’ own micron transformation is visible in consumer sentiment, although its impact on the economy remains limited.

One sign of declining confidence is households’ intentions to buy a home, which have come down in December, Hirvonen said in a tweet.

EC: n In the confidence indicator, business confidence fell for the first time since February. The drop was the largest since the interest rate spring 2020.

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Director of EK Sami Pakarinen estimates that the December decline could be put at the peak of the uncertainty brought about by omikron. The decline was reflected in industry and retail trade, while services and construction rose slightly.

Despite the decline, confidence is higher than the long-term average in both industry and retail.

“The restrictive measures introduced last week will hit certain sectors hard and the coming weeks will certainly be very difficult. Fortunately, there is also hope among them, especially with the acceleration of vaccinations. However, the confidence of the entire business community peaked in November since the spring of 2007, and now December has come down. It may take time to reach new highs, as the business cycle is clearly leveling off. ”

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