Washington uses new levers of pressure on Beijing ahead of the meeting of US and Chinese leaders at the APEC summit in San Francisco. Americans are helping to escalate the conflict in Myanmar, an important trading partner of China in the region, by supporting the opposition in the fight against the military government. Rebel armed groups have already established control over several cities in northeastern Myanmar, blocking important trade routes with China, and have opened new fronts in the west. Authorities warn of threat of country collapse.
Conflict between center and opposition intensifies in Myanmar
In Myanmar (its former name is Burma), the conflict between the military government, which came to power as a result of a coup in February 2021, and the opposition has escalated. Fierce fighting has been going on for several weeks. Ethnic minority rebels launched a major offensive from Shan State in the northeast of the country near the border with China. Fighting also broke out in the state of Kayah near Thailand. The day before, opposition troops attacked territories in the west of the country near India, opening new fronts. On November 14, the rebels managed to capture several military bases in these territories, senior commanders of the armed groups said. Now the militants are seeking to gain control of part of the border with India, Reuters reports. As a result, about 5 thousand local residents were forced to flee to the Indian state of Mizoram, CNA reports.
In total, armed groups have already established control over several cities and at least a hundred military posts. In total, 50 thousand people have fled their homes since the start of hostilities, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA) reported.
The rebels are represented by an anti-government coalition, consisting of the Arakan Army, the Taang National Liberation Army and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army. It is supported by the anti-government Burmese People Defense Forces (PDF), which was formed after the 2021 coup in Myanmar. Since then, the military administration that came to power has not faced a greater threat than now. Interim President Myint Shwe said the country would be on the verge of collapse if the military was unable to quell resistance.
How Burmese rebels crossed the path of China
The actions of armed groups affect not only the political ambitions of the military government, but also the economic ones. In particular, rebels blocked strategically important trade routes with China. Striking a blow to the financial positions of the authorities is one of the goals of the resistance, since up to 40% of the “center’s” income is generated precisely through ties with Beijing.
The current situation is also turning against Beijing itself. Instability at the border could hamper Chinese investment in the region and even ambitions to create a global economic corridor.
— For China, Myanmar is important as a country that plays an important role in the implementation of the “One Belt, One Road” program.. A transport corridor to the deep-sea port of Chaukpyu, which is being built by the Chinese, should pass through it, as well as oil and gas pipelines built in 2013–2017, which are of strategic importance for the PRC, explained in an interview with Izvestia the head of the Center for the Study of Far Eastern Countries in St. Petersburg Kirill Kotkov.
In addition, Beijing has repeatedly worried about the safety of the Chinese living in Myanmar. Now the situation has become more complicated because there are already casualties. In particular, local and Western media write about at least one killed and several wounded Chinese. Beijing confirmed that there were casualties as a result of the clashes in Myanmar.
On this background China may well react, however, it is not yet clear in what form. Meanwhile, according to some reports, on November 13, Chinese special forces entered the town of Laukkai, bordering China, known as a center of cyber fraud and casinos, in agreement with the Myanmar authorities with the aim of allegedly arresting numerous swindlers of Chinese origin.
After these messages, some experts started talking about the impending collapse of Myanmar and even recalled negotiations between Moscow and Naypyitaw regarding the possible deployment of a Russian naval base and sending a “limited contingent” to help the “friendly regime,” Kirill Kotkov noted.
And this couldn’t happen without the USA
It is worth noting that Not all ethnic minorities fight against the center, but only those who have the resources and capabilities to do so. And, according to some sources, they are provided to the rebels, including the United States, which does not recognize the military government of Myanmar. For example, the country is still represented at the UN by a democratic government overthrown in 2021. Recently, there have been reports in the media about Washington’s expansion of arms supplies to the military wing of the opposition. The rebels are not only supplied with lethal weapons, but also trained in subversive activities.
“It is important for PDF to demonstrate to Western countries, primarily the United States, the success of the fight against the “bloody military regime.” The United States provides support to PDF, but the latter is carried out on a residual basis, since it directly depends on the group’s success in the fight against the military government of Myanmar, noted Kirill Kotkov.
Washington is also using the conflict in Myanmar to destabilize China in the context of rivalry in the Asian region. It is noteworthy that all these events are taking place on the eve of a meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Joe Biden at the APEC summit in San Francisco. According to experts, Myanmar, along with the Taiwan factor, will undoubtedly be used as one of the levers of pressure on China.
In the meantime, political scientists agree that the renewed conflict in Myanmar is unlikely to threaten the collapse of the country. However with further escalation, any outside intervention could be catastrophic. The fact is that there are about 66 armed formations in Myanmarthe number of which varies from several hundred to 20-30 thousand people.
Moreover, the existence of these groups is recognized by the government center. According to political scientists, the Myanmar Armed Forces remain the only force keeping the country from chaos, so the defeat of the government army could be a disaster.
— The army for Burma is, so to speak, the core, because it is the army that has been supporting the state within the borders within which it gained independence for more than 50 years since the country gained independence. Therefore, the destruction of the army would actually mean a catastrophe for Burmese statehood. This could undermine the stability and relative prosperity of the entire region of Southeast Asia in general,” Dmitry Mosyakov, head of the Center for the Study of Southeast Asia, Australia and Oceania, and member of the academic council of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Izvestia.
In this regard, most likely, the issue can be resolved by ASEAN, which includes Myanmar. In addition, the advantage is still on the side of the country’s armed forces, so the “center” has a great chance of regaining control over the captured cities.
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