The third parliamentary elections in Bulgaria in a year, held on November 14, again led to the emergence of a fragmented People’s Assembly. The GERB party of ex-Prime Minister Boyko Borisov received the majority of votes, but the absence of allies makes the emergence of a government coalition headed by it extremely unlikely. The main hopes for the emergence of a stable cabinet are associated with the new party “Changes Continue”, which lost less than a percent to the GERB. Although much will depend on the negotiability of its leaders, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. But the outcome of the presidential elections turned out to be more predictable: the majority of votes went to the incumbent President Rumen Radev, who, however, will have to consolidate the victory in the second round.
Shortage on all fronts
The elections to the Bulgarian parliament have become the third in less than a year, since none of the parties was able to form a government following the results of the April and July elections. And on the eve of the current early elections to the National Assembly, it was only obvious that, as in previous times, the new parliament would be extremely fragmented, and this would again complicate the formation of a stable government.
20 parties and seven coalitions took part in the struggle for 240 deputy mandates, nominating a total of more than five thousand candidates, but, judging by public opinion polls, only six political forces had real chances of getting into parliament, breaking the 4% barrier …
The first place, based on the ratings, should have remained for the party “Citizens for the European Development of Bulgaria” (GERB) of ex-Prime Minister Boyko Borisov. Polls promised her 23-25% of the vote. And according to exit polls, in the end she received about 24.8%.
However, the corruption scandals surrounding this party, which ruled Bulgaria intermittently for more than a decade, turned many allies away from it. The former partner of GERB in the previous government – the far-right United Patriots alliance, famous for its policies contrary to the democratic rules of the European Union – this time failed to get into parliament. The only force that expressed its consent to enter into a coalition with the GERB was the Movement for Rights and Freedoms party of the Turkish minority. But her support alone (she got just over 10% of the vote) was not enough to form a coalition government.
Borisov’s ideological opponents have not been doing well in recent months either. Three parties formed in the wake of last year’s anti-corruption and anti-government protests – “There is such a people!”, “Democratic Bulgaria” and “Get up, mafia out! We go!” – and failed to convert the popular request for a change of power into the creation of a government. Largely – due to the incapacity of the leader “There is such a people!” Slavi Trifonova, who won first place in the July elections, but refused to join any coalition.
Against this background, the party’s electoral support has dropped from 24% in the summer to 10% now. And “Changes Continue”, a new centrist party created in mid-September by two former interim government ministers with Harvard diplomas, Kiril Petkov and Asen Vasilev, quickly came to the fore for the current elections. On the eve of the vote, polls gave her about 16%, but she finished much better – with the second result and the support of 24.1% of Bulgarians.
And now hopes for a normal government are connected with whether this force will be able to unite around itself such parties as the Socialists (with 13.7% of the votes), Democratic Bulgaria (about 7%), There is such a people! (9.9%) and Vozrozhdenie (4%).
What’s with this Russia
Even before the first parliamentary elections this year in April this year in Bulgaria, relations between Sofia and Moscow were extremely difficult. Spy scandals were raging between the countries, accompanied by the expulsion of diplomats. And anti-Russian statements by the ruling politicians from the GERB not long ago were not uncommon.
– Bulgarian diplomats cannot advance their position at the European level as, for example, the Hungarians do, who are improving relations with Russia, despite the discontent of Brussels. Bulgarian diplomacy mainly used the “Moscow factor” in order to receive preferences from the EU, – Ekaterina Shumitskaya, senior researcher at the IMEMO Department of European Political Studies, told Izvestia. – I think that relations between Sofia and Moscow will not develop either for the better or for the worse (although there is nowhere to be worse).
Moreover, according to the expert, against the background of the deepest internal political crisis in Bulgaria, any foreign policy issues will be paused, except for relations with the EU and related to financial assistance.
However, there are those who do not rule out that worse is still possible. For example, the chief editor of the Balkanist project, Oleg Bondarenko, in an interview with Izvestia, suggested that the history of the Czech Republic, where a completely anti-Russian government recently came to power, may well repeat itself in Bulgaria. Despite the fact that the past could not be called particularly friendly.
According to him, historically, the most sane in relation to Russia were the Bulgarian socialists, but in recent years this party has degraded in a political sense and has experienced repeated changes of leaders. Boyko Borisov was never considered a pro-Russian politician, but being a pragmatist, he, for example, agreed to build a Turkish Stream through Bulgaria and make the country a transit country for Russian gas when he found it beneficial.
– The same populist politicians who are now competing with the Coat of Arms are, as a rule, graduates of all Soros programs. And to analyze which of them is less or more anti-Russian, in my opinion, is stupid – all this new generation of politicians has grown up in the spirit of “Russia is the enemy.” And if Borisov had a cynical calculation, then these guys are more ideological. Their value system is made up of “bad guys” and “good guys”. And, of course, Russia is a “bad guy” for them, – explained Oleg Bondarenko.
Closer to half
Unlike the unpredictable parliamentary elections, the vote for the president, although 23 candidates also took part in it at once, did not promise any special intrigues and surprises. All polls, without exception, promised victory to the head of state, Rumen Radev, who has been in office since 2017.
– The President managed to synchronize the conflicting flows in the Bulgarian political process around the anti-GERB agenda, bringing together left conservatives from former communists, pro-Western liberals (successors of anti-communist forces) and constantly appearing populist actors acting under the slogan “people against the elite” under one wing. And the recently emerged technocratic movement “Changes Continue” – new political stars – also support Radev, “Parvan Simeonov, head of the Bulgarian branch of Gallup International, explained to Izvestia the popularity of the president.
Back in April, following the appointment of an interim government, which promptly initiated an investigation into possible corruption schemes in the last GERB government, Rumen Radev further strengthened his support. The next wave of the pandemic (by the way, on election day it became known about a new anti-death record for the entire 2021 – 1186 people died in Bulgaria last week) somewhat reduced the level of popular love for the president. Although not so critical: following the elections on November 14, Radev won 49.48% of votes Bulgarians, ahead of their closest rival, the rector of Sofia University Anastas Gerdzhikov, by 26%. This is almost guaranteed to lead the president to re-election in the second round, scheduled for November 21.
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