Scenario is stable and voters are pessimistic about the economy; unemployment and inflation are the most cited problems
the former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT) continues to lead the voting intentions for the presidential elections in October, according to the BTG/FSB poll released this Monday (27.jun.2022). Here’s the intact.
The survey also says that 63% of respondents rate it as “bad” or “too bad” the Brazilian economy today, while 34% believe that the situation will be “a little worse” or “much worse” in the next 3 months.
In relation to inflation, 65% consider that the price of products should “increase a lot” or “increase a little” in the next 3 months. This number fluctuated 2% more compared to the previous survey, carried out between June 10th and 12th.
The survey surveyed 2,000 voters from June 24 to 26, 2022. The margin of error is plus or minus 2 percentage points at a 95% confidence interval. The survey cost R$128,957.83 and was paid for with Banco BTG Pactual’s own resources. The registration of the survey at the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) is BR-05022/2022.
According to the survey, the PT leads with 43% against 33% of the president Jair Bolsonaro (PL).
Then comes the former governor of Ceará Ciro Gomes (PDT), with 8% of voting intentions. already the senator Simone Tebet (MDB) has 3%, followed by André Janones (Avante), with 2%, and Pablo Marçal (Pros), with 1%. The other names tested did not score.
Over the last 30 days, Lula fluctuated between 46% (in May) to 44% (on June 13) and ended the month with 43% of voting intentions in the 1st round. Bolsonaro, on the other hand, remained stable in recent polls, going from 32% to 33%.
Below are the main numbers of the survey:
Spontaneous
- Squid 39% (previously 40%)
- Bolsonaro 31% (previously 29%)
- Cyrus 3% (before 3%)
- Others 3% (before 3%)
- I don’t vote 24% (previously 26%)
stimulated
- Squid 43% (previously 44%)
- Bolsonaro 33% (previously 32%)
- Cyrus 8% (previously 9%)
- Simone Tebet 3% (before 2%)
- Others 4% (previously 2%)
- I don’t vote 8% (previously 9%)
2nd shift
- Squid 52% (previously 54%)
- Bolsonaro 37% (previously 36%)
- I don’t vote 10% (previously 9%)
Voting potential
- Squid 54% (previously 54%)
- Bolsonaro 40% (previously 39%)
Rejection
- Squid 44% (previously 44%)
- Bolsonaro 57% (previously 59%)
In the government’s assessment, the picture remains quite stable, compared to two weeks ago:
Evaluation
- great/good: 29% (stable)
- Regular: 21% (stable)
- Bad/Terribly: 50% (was 49%)
Approval
- Approves: 35% (was 36%)
- Disapproves: 60% (stable)
Economy
The perception of Brazilians about the economy continues to deteriorate:
Current situation of the Brazilian economy:
- great / good 14%
- Regular 22%
- bad/very bad 63%
Situation of the Brazilian economy 3 months from now:
- Best 35%
- Equal 28%
- Worst 34%
At the intersection of these two questions above, we have 54% of the electorate with a pessimistic bias, against 38% with an optimistic bias.
Current financial situation of the interviewee:
- great / good 28%
- Regular 43%
- bad/very bad 28%
Financial situation of the interviewee 3 months from now:
- Best 45%
- Equal 38%
- Worst 14%
At the intersection of the two questions above, we have 57% of the electorate with an optimistic bias regarding their financial situation, while 23% have a pessimistic bias. In short, people tend to think that the situation in the country is worse than they are.
Main economic problem
Unemployment (38%) and inflation (37%) are now the main problems facing the Brazilian economy, in the eyes of voters.
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