Two people were brutally murdered for ideological reasons in recent months in Brazil; the electoral campaign has been very aggressive; political polarization is sharper than a samurai sword and there are multiple fears that threaten the Brazilian elections.
(Read here: Bolsonaro and Lula ‘take their rags out in the sun’ for corruption in the last debate)
“They will be violent elections,” analyst Mario Osava tells EL TIEMPO, who recalls that there were two Bolsonarists, who support the re-election of the right-wing president. Jair Bolsonarothose who murdered two followers of the former left-wing president with a bullet and a knife in early September Luiz Inacio Lula da Silvaof the Workers’ Party (PT) and main opponent of the current president in the electoral contest.
(In context: Lula da Silva and Bolsonaro face each other this Sunday at the polls)
“The trend is that this type of violence, scattered and eventual, will intensify and, if there is a second round, will last until October 30,” he predicts.
Until Thursday, the Police was investigating the reasons for the knife murder of a Bolsonarista and that same day the Brazilian justice approved a ban on the carrying of weapons throughout the territory between Saturday and Monday to avoid confrontations.
The largest and most populous country in Latin America It is under a polarized environment between those who support Bolsonaro and those who follow Lula, the two candidates with the most options to win the presidency for the 2023-2027 period.
The only doubt that exists is whether Lula will be elected today or in the second round on October 30.
“It is very likely” that Lula will win today with the useful vote of those who support other candidates, such as Ciro Gomes, of the Democratic Labor Party (PDT), and Simone Tebet, of the Brazilian Democratic Movement (PMDB), according to Osava.
The same forecast is made by the pollsters Ipec (Intelligence in Research and Strategic Consulting), Quaest Pesquisa e Consultoria and Datafolha. According to an Ipec poll released four days ago, one out of every five PDT and PMDB voters would vote today for Lula, who would win with 52 percent of the vote against 34 percent for Bolsonaro.
Another poll ofand Datafolha, posted 48 hours ago, shows that Lula would get 50 percent of the vote and Bolsonaro 36 percent. To win in the first round, a candidate must get 50 percent.
The only doubt that exists is whether Lula “will be elected today or in the second round on October 30,” according to analyst Amir Sade.
Some 156 million Brazilians are eligible to elect the president, vice president, and federal senators and deputies. Also, governors, lieutenant governors, state and Federal District deputies.
Voting in Brazil is mandatory, but abstention is high. When Bolsonaro won in 2018 it was 21 percent, that is, 31 million people did not vote.
The posibilities
If Lula wins, the Bolsonaristas fear “the return of large-scale corruption” and of the economic policies that led to the economic recession of 2015-2016, with a cumulative drop in GDP of almost 7 percent.
Lula paid 19 months in jail in 2018-2019 and he was acquitted for “articulating and allowing two corruption mechanisms: one to buy votes in Congress and approve projects, and the other, which diverted billions of dollars from the Petrobras system,” recalls Osava.
He has no intention of abandoning power” and “what he is pursuing is not a coup… It is a revolution
But his eventual victory, in his opinion, would be good “for democracy, social policies to reduce poverty and hunger”, in which Brazil went back 20 years, according to a study.
if it expires Bolsonarothe analyst estimates that it would be to continue with the destruction of the environment, of the Amazonarming the population more, more conflicts of political origin and the annihilation of advances in education achieved in decades.
“Bolsonaro was a disaster: more than 680,000 deaths from the pandemic, hundreds of thousands preventable; confusion in the economy due to his chaotic statements and actions and the destruction of important achievements also in the social sphere”, he affirms.
If “Bolsonaro, who spent billions of reais that Brazil did not have, wins, the destruction will continue and, if Lula defeats him, ironically, he will have to pay that bill,” internationalist Diana Reneé Brajterman tells EL TIEMPO.
Osava admits that there are hypothetical factors that have strengthened Bolsonaro, such as the drop in fuel prices, which reduced state taxes on oil derivatives, and which coincided with the drop in the price of crude oil worldwide.
“Because of this, inflation, which in July exceeded 11 percent a year, also fell and stood at 8.73 percent in August. Bolsonaro also increased until December, through a maneuver in Congress, from 400 to 600 reais the social assistance known as Bolsa Família, but that has given him few votes because people identify it as a program of the Lula government, ”he explains.
It also helped Bolsonaro to stop demanding the printed vote and to explicitly attack the judges of the Federal Supreme Courtprecise.
But he maintains that what weakened him the most was “his contempt for the pandemic; his attack on social isolation, the use of masks and his defense of innocuous or even harmful drugs, such as chloroquine.”
Some of the main challenges for the next president will be to face an unemployment rate of 9.3 percent in the second quarter of 2022, the highest in 10 years, and poverty, which went from 16 percent in 2014 to 23 .7 percent last year, according to a study by the Catholic University of Rio Grande do Sul and other entities.
The fears
The complex political situation in Brazil disables a third way, since 52 percent will not vote for Bolsonaro and 39 percent reject Lula, according to a survey by Datafolha, published between September 20 and 22. In fact, the third candidate in the polls is Ciro Gomes, with just 6 percent of voting intentions.
Bolsonaro has questioned the Supreme Courtthe highest instance of justice in Brazil, cast doubt on the electoral process and used the Armed Forces in their elections, as support for their management or as a threat to democracy.
He will seek re-election with retired Army General Walter Braga Netto as vice president, and has said he will not accept any outcome other than his victory.
A week ago, he released an item of about 144 million dollars to favor those who support him in Congress and the Ministry of Defense, and he added more gasoline to the candle by ordering the army to act as “validator” of these elections.
The national and international press have speculated about an eventual military coup or armed revolution if Bolsonaro loses today or in the second round.
His intention “is to reject any electoral result that does not please him and, with the help of the army, to install himself permanently in the presidency,” said Miguel Lago, a professor at Columbia University, in The New York Times.
“He has no intention of abandoning power” and “what he is pursuing is not a coup… It is a revolution,” with the support of the police and the more than 600,000 people he armed under his government, he said.
But Osava does not believe in an eventual coup or revolution because “there is no organized movement or breaking force.” In addition, the majority of the population rejects the president, who would be the leader of the coup, and more than 70 percent believe that democracy is the best regime, according to polls.
“The Bolsonaristas may be the majority in the military police and in the Armed Forces, but they would not support a coup because, first, there would have to be an ideology and a strong motivation. No one would risk their career or life for someone like Bolsonaro,” he states. At one point in the campaign, the incumbent president toned down his tone and said he would hand over the presidential sash if he loses.
Only between 10 and 12 percent of the population is radical Bolsonarista, but it is not organized and depends on the Armed forcesOsava recalls.
The military support Bolsonaro because they believe that he rescued the lost honor, pride and self-esteem of his class and understand his victory as a vindication of the military dictatorship (1964-1985). For the internationalist Brajterman, the current Brazilian elections “are exclusively intended to remove Bolsonaro from power to stop the destruction and try to launch a slow and difficult process of reconstruction.”
GLORY HELENA KING
FOR THE TIME
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