Die SPD jubelt mit Verzögerung. Punkt 18 Uhr hakt die Fernsehübertragung. Der Bildschirm bleibt schwarz, die Gäste der Potsdamer Wahlparty schauen umso konzentrierter auf ihre Handys. Da lesen sie die ersten Prognosen: und dann bricht Jubel aus, erst in einem Grüppchen, dann im nächsten, dann im ganzen Hof. Die SPD liegt knapp vor der AfD, die ersten Zahlen sehen sie bei rund 31 Prozent, die AfD bei 30. Menschen umarmen einander, erheben ihre Biergläser zu einem erleichterten Prosit.
Zehn Minuten später trifft Ministerpräsident Dietmar Woidke ein. Riesiger Applaus, Woidke auf der Bühne, er muss schlucken, will sprechen, schluckt wieder. Nach Jubel ist ihm noch nicht. „Es ist ein hartes Stück Arbeit, das wir hinter uns gebracht haben“, sagt Woidke. „Wir haben gesagt: Wir nehmen diesen Kampf auf.“ Gerade sehe es so aus, als sei der Kampf gewonnen – aber noch brauche man die „Euphoriebremse“. Es scheine aber so, dass es Sozialdemokraten wieder einmal gelungen sei, Rechtsextremisten auf ihrem Weg zur Macht zu stoppen.
Woidkes Rennen gegen die AfD bestimmte den Wahlkampf, in dem es lange so aussah, als würde er ihn gegen die Rechtsaußenpartei verlieren. Ganz zu Ende war der Kampf aber auch nach den ersten Prognosen noch nicht – neben Woidke warnten auch andere Sozialdemokraten davor, den Wahlabend vor dem endgültigen Ergebnis zu loben. Bei der Wahl ging es Woidke zufolge um „fast alles“. Die Wähler schienen ebenso zu empfinden: Die Wahlbeteiligung war am Sonntag hoch – etwa drei von vier Wahlberechtigten gaben ihre Stimme ab. Das waren viel mehr als vor fünf Jahren.
Sozialdemokratische Aufholjagd
In Umfragen hatte die AfD bis zum Wahltag vorn gelegen. Nachdem sie lange mit Abstand geführt hatte, war der Vorsprung in den Wochen vor der Wahl zusammengeschmolzen auf zuletzt nur noch einen Prozentpunkt. Dass Woidke angekündigt hatte, er werde keine neue Regierung anführen, wenn die AfD stärkste Kraft werde, gab anscheinend einigen zu denken. Auch AfD-Anhänger äußerten, dass sie es schade fänden, wenn Woidke weg wäre. Der Ministerpräsident, seit elf Jahren an der Spitze des Landes, ist der beliebteste Politiker in Brandenburg. Darauf war auch der Wahlkampf der SPD ausgerichtet gewesen. Woidke hatte alles darangesetzt, abgekoppelt von der Bundes-SPD wahrgenommen zu werden.
Bis zum Schluss hatte Woidke sich im Wahlkampf zuversichtlich gezeigt, zu gewinnen. Es stehe jetzt „Spitz auf Knopp“, sagte er am Freitag beim Wahlkampfabschluss der SPD in Oranienburg, und dann, fast philosophisch: „Wir können es schaffen, und weil wir es schaffen können, werden wir es auch schaffen.“ Immer wieder hatte Woidke betont, dass es um die Zukunft Brandenburgs gehe, um die Wirtschaft, die Bildung, die Gesundheitsversorgung. Und nicht um die Zukunft Deutschlands – worauf die AfD mit ihrem Wahlkampf zielte.
It had linked the outcome of the state election to the future of the federal government. If Woidke were voted out, the traffic light coalition would also be finished, AfD top candidate Hans-Christoph Berndt and other AfD politicians had repeatedly told voters. In terms of content, the AfD had put the issue of migration at the forefront, promoting “remigration”. For them, the election result is a great success – especially in view of the fact that Berndt is largely unknown to the population. “Don’t forget the support we had in this election campaign,” he called out to supporters at the AfD election party on Sunday evening. The party sees itself, if not as an “election winner”, then at least as an “election winner” because it has gained votes compared to the election five years ago.
A disappointing election night for the CDU: “It’s like a funeral”
It was a very disappointing election night for the CDU. Early projections put the party in a race for third place, but not against Woidke. Lead candidate Jan Redmann actually wanted to become prime minister himself, but now he is standing in front of his party colleagues and talking about September 1st. After the state elections in Thuringia and Saxony, Redmann complains, the election campaign in Brandenburg has changed. Brandenburgers were “scared to death”. After that, it was all about Woidke versus the AfD. “This polarization only helped both of them.”
Redmann ends his speech quickly, and the Christian Democrats order a beer to relieve their frustration. “It’s like a funeral,” says one. “A devastating defeat,” says another. “We had different expectations,” Redmann also said. His party had actually expected to be involved in the race for the State Chancellery.
Redmann had to struggle for a long time with being relatively unknown in the state. He then became known for, of all things, driving a scooter while heavily intoxicated. Redmann saved his candidacy by dealing with this transparently, but at the cost of his competitors being able to remind him of his mistake from time to time. At the BSW, at any rate, they were happily thinking out loud about whether a government could be formed with a criminal.
Redmann on Kretschmer: “This has disappointed many election campaigners in the country”
Until the day before the election, the CDU had tried to catch up with the chasing group and to fight for the state chancellery again at the top of the race. But the election campaign was increasingly mixed with resigned tones. Redmann found it unhelpful when his party colleague, the Saxon Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer, recommended in an interview with the FAZ that the Brandenburgers should re-elect their Social Democratic Prime Minister. “That disappointed many election campaigners in the state,” said Redmann on Sunday evening. He wanted to talk to Kretschmer about it again. Even before election day, Redmann had complained that there was hardly any focus on state issues because of all the “Woidke against the AfD.” The CDU had also largely conducted an election campaign with a federal political slant – against the unpopular traffic light coalition.
The BSW also ran an election campaign in which it was often unclear whether the focus was on state or federal politics. During her appearances in the state’s major cities, Sahra Wagenknecht spoke a lot about a “signal to Berlin” that Brandenburg voters should send. Lead candidate Robert Crumbach, on the other hand, talked a lot about schools and companies and little about whether he would like to work in a state government to bring about change there. He only ruled out a coalition with the AfD, and also hinted that the BSW would only govern if Potsdam sent some kind of signal for peace in Ukraine.
Does the BSW want to govern?
Even on election night, Crumbach does not want to commit himself to whether the BSW wants to govern. He can only promise that his party will be “fit for work” as soon as the state parliament meets. In any case, it is not a question of whether he will become a minister, but of ensuring “sensible politics”. “You can do that in the opposition too,” said Crumbach on Sunday evening. Before the BSW decides anything else, he must first know the result. It seems as if Crumbach is quite happy that it is not clear on the evening whether the Greens and Free Voters will return to the state parliament. In any case, he has a good relationship with the federal association of the BSW, says Crumbach – because in his Brandenburg regional association it is also an open question whether Wagenknecht and the other leadership of the federal party want to seek participation in the government in Brandenburg.
The party celebrated on election night a good distance away from the other parties. The BSW can be happy to be entering the next state parliament just a few months after its founding. But there were also people in the BSW who had dreamed of a result in the region of 20 percent – the Wagenknecht party remained far from that. Nevertheless, the result gives the party the opportunity to build up the party structures that the BSW has so far lacked. The BSW has only around 40 members in Brandenburg, no state office, and top candidate Crumbach managed without a press spokesman in the election campaign, which the party was by far the first to officially end days before the election.
Greens and Left Party plummet in voter popularity
Sunday was a sobering day for the Greens and the Left. Both parties have plummeted in popularity: after just over ten percent each five years ago, the Greens have now reached a level that makes them fear that they will be re-elected to the state parliament. They had also hoped to give themselves and their supporters hope by calling for more “courage among themselves”. But the duo of leading candidates, Antje Töpfer and Benjamin Raschke, remained rather pale. Hopes of a direct mandate in Potsdam remained alive in the early evening. If they win the constituency there, the party will enter the state parliament, even if they win less than five percent of the second votes.
The Left, on the other hand, failed to clear the five percent hurdle. It lost many voters to the BSW. It had expected this; it had gone into the election campaign relatively despondent. People did not know what it stood for, even its own campaigners said. It presented itself as the social opposition, and leading candidate Sebastian Walter was branded as Robin Hood on posters. Alongside social issues, peace was the Left’s big issue – but the BSW was more successful in attracting votes.
The FDP has suffered another bitter defeat. After narrowly missing out on a place in parliament five years ago – at that time it achieved four percent – it is now losing voters significantly and is now in a barely measurable range. This is probably also due to the liberal competition in the country: the BVB/Free Voters alliance also lost significantly compared to the previous election, but received many more votes than the Free Democrats. It can also hope for a direct mandate in the constituency of its state chairman Péter Vida.
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