09/08/2024 – 17:59
The release of at least four electoral polls is expected to shake up the race for Mayor of São Paulo this week. According to the website of the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), surveys from the country’s main research institutes are expected to be released: Datafolha, Quaest, Paraná Pesquisas and Atlas.
As shown by the Statealthough there are small numerical variations, the last four polls of voting intentions indicate the same scenario: one month before the municipal elections, the capital of São Paulo has a three-way tie in the lead of the race for Mayor between federal deputy Guilherme Boulos (PSOL), the current mayor, Ricardo Nunes (MDB), and businessman and influencer Pablo Marçal (PRTB). This scenario is unprecedented at this stage of the last elections.
The spotlight in upcoming polls is likely to focus on Pablo Marçal, whose rapid rise appears to have come to an end in the last week, while his rejection rate continues to rise. Mayor Ricardo Nunes’ campaign hopes he will extend his lead over Marçal, boosted by free airtime, where Nunes has 6 minutes and 30 seconds of airtime.
The former coach has faced a negative campaign from his opponents, both during free election time and on social media. The governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans), recorded inserts for the mayor in which he claims that Marçal would be the gateway for Guilherme Boulos in the city. An insert by Nunes refers to reports that highlight controversial episodes in Marçal’s career and mentions his party’s alleged connection with Primeiro Comando da Capital. Tabata Amaral, from the PSB, has also published videos criticizing the businessman.
See below when the next surveys in SP will be released:
Quaest
Date the research was carried out in the field: September 8th to September 10th
Release date reported to the TSE: September 11 (Wednesday)
Identification number: SP-09089/2024
Number of respondents: 1200
Atlas
Date the research was carried out in the field: September 5th to September 10th
Release date reported to the TSE: September 11 (Wednesday)
Identification number: SP-01125/2024
Number of respondents: 2200
Datafolha
Date the research was carried out in the field: September 10th to September 12th
Release date reported to the TSE: September 12 (Thursday)
Identification number: SP-07978/2024
Number of respondents: 1204
Paraná Research
Date the research was carried out in the field: September 9th to September 12th
Date of disclosure reported to the TSE: September 13 (Friday)
Identification number: SP-00319/2024
Number of respondents: 1500
It is important to note that the dates reported to the TSE indicate the period in which the survey becomes available for publication. The contractor or media outlet that will publish it may, exceptionally, choose to publish it one or more days later, for example.
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