Aerial images and a map of Paulista Avenue allow an approximate calculation of the concentration; at the beginning of the year, around 350 thousand people attended the former president
The act called by the former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL) this Saturday (September 7, 2024) brought together around 58,000 people on Paulista Avenue, in São Paulo. The number is lower than the 350,000 protesters who accompanied the former president at the same location in February 2024. The estimate was possible through analysis of photos and videos recorded during the event and detailed maps with the length of the road.
The former president’s demonstration was motivated by the impeachment request against the Minister of STF (Federal Supreme Court) Alexandre de Moraes. Bolsonaro supporters’ dissatisfaction with the judge grew with the suspension of X (formerly Twitter) in Brazil. This wing argues that the social network is the greatest vector of “freedom of expression” in Brazil and believes that Moraes’ decisions would be a form of censorship.
The demonstration took up about 8 blocks of the avenue that runs through the center of São Paulo. The crowd, however, was spread out.
THE Poder360 There was a photographer in São Paulo who took aerial photos of the demonstration in a wide shot to allow an estimated count of those present. The images were recorded during Bolsonaro’s speech – which began at 3:55 p.m. and ended at 4:17 p.m.
Even with a professional in the field, areas covered by trees and awnings make the survey less accurate, but allow for a correct estimate of how many people were present.
Supporters of the former president began to gather at the location at 11 am. By 1 pm, people were already filling more than one block. The event actually began at 2 pm and ended shortly after 4 pm, as soon as Bolsonaro finished speaking.
THE Poder360 used Google Earth to define the area of the demonstration. Based on the analysis of the photos and videos, the density of the occupied locations was estimated and divided into categories:
m²
- low density – one person per m²;
- average density – 3 people per m²;
- high density – 5 people per m².
The audience at an event of this nature fluctuates. Some areas were more or less full throughout the afternoon. It is also not possible to clearly identify in the images the audience that is under trees or building awnings. Because of these limitations, the Poder360 estimated that the audience was in the range of 80,000 to 100,000 people.
See below the images used by the digital newspaper (as this is a sequence of photos, it is possible that people and objects may appear duplicated):
Photo gallery of Bolsonaro’s act
USP estimate
THE Monitor of Political Debate in the Digital Environmentfrom USP (University of São Paulo), estimated that the event called by Bolsonaro had an audience of 45,400 people. The margin of error is 5,400 people, more or less. The calculation is made with the help of a Chinese software called Point to Point Network. Understand in this report from Poder360 how the program works. In February, researchers estimated that the act had gathered about 185,000 protesters.
Read the full from the researchers’ survey (PDF – 43 MB).
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