La Paz, Bolivia – The relationship between former President Evo Morales and the current Head of State Luis Arce began to fracture when the former announced that he would be his party’s presidential candidate for 2025. The two leaders, according to politicians and analysts, are on their way to worsening their confrontation. .
The political schism occurs before the congress of the Movement towards Socialism (MAS), which Morales will lead from Tuesday, October 3 in the coca-growing area of Chapare, with the purpose of being chosen as the candidate “to save Bolivia.” Luis Arce will not attend that event because, as he said, because “the true owners, the founding social organizations of the MAS, will not be there.”
The fracture, which has been going on for several months, has had episodes of pitched battles between divided social organizations and caused the legislative blockade of the parliamentarians “evident” of the decisions of the Arce government and the threats of a “political earthquake” by Morales’ followers. in the country if the former president is disqualified as a MAS candidate by the Constitutional Court.
Sisters and brothers, democracy in Bolivia and the political rights of the MAS-IPSP militancy are in serious danger due to the attempt of the internal and external right that with its operators try to outlaw the largest political movement in the history of Bolivia and … pic.twitter.com/PPhM8IEC9s
— Evo Morales Ayma (@evoespueblo) September 29, 2023
“Evista” senator Luis Flores told France 24 that, in the Chapareña town of Lauca Ñ, those attending the congress will ratify Morales as president of the MAS and that the absence of President Luis Arce is “a voluntary, visible departure” from that political organization.
There is a will from many people, who are demonstrating, from the people, from people from the rural area, to nominate Evo Morales as a candidate in 2025, said Flores, after recognizing that the former president must previously win a primary to be the official candidate.
When Morales enthusiastically announced his new candidacy to seek a fourth non-consecutive presidential term, he did not mention the obligation he has to contest primary elections, but later he rectified and said that he was willing to measure himself in that process.
By the way, the Minister of Justice, Iván Lima, recalled that every candidate must register for the primaries within the framework of what the Constitution provides and taking into account “the advisory opinion on re-election and all those regulations that will have to be analyzed.” at the time of registration of any candidacy” in the Supreme Electoral Tribunal.
Lima alluded to the advisory opinion issued in 2021 by the Inter-American Court of Human Rights (IDH-Court), in the sense that “indefinite re-election” is not a human right, something that Morales had argued in 2019 when seeking a fourth consecutive term. , despite the fact that the Constitution establishes only one re-election or two consecutive periods.
Morales obtained the endorsement of the Constitutional Court to run, despite having lost a referendum in 2016 on that issue.
The 2019 electoral process was unsuccessful, causing protests, a violent political crisis and the departure of Morales from power, after almost 14 years, the assumption of the transitional president Jeanine Añez, and in 2020 it led to the electoral victory of Arce, with the support of the former president.
Flores defended that the opinion of the Inter-American Court cannot stop Morales’ new nomination because it is not consecutive, but rather a period of five years in which he has not been in power.
The former president is taking a break and would not be banned. However, Justice in Bolivia is always influenced by the Executive body, Flores said.
Morales has accused the Government of seeking to disqualify him through the Constitutional Court, of trying to annul the Lauca Ñ congress and has attacked Arce stating that he is not the ideologue of the economic model as the president presents himself, but that “he was the cashier” and who has gone “from traitor to destroyer of the economy.”
“I have no problem being called whatever they want, the results are what count,” replied Arce, who was Morales’ Economy Minister for more than a decade.
“Evo Morales cannot be a candidate”, Barrientos
Opposition senator Andrea Barrientos, from Comunidad Ciudadana (CC), told France 24 that “Evo Morales cannot be a candidate because the Constitution does not allow him to, although he clearly sneezes at the Constitution because he is a little dictator.”
He argued that article 168 of the Magna Carta establishes only one re-election or two consecutive terms and aspiring to a fourth term is “a violation” of it.
Morales’ announcement “hurts the country” because it prematurely electoralizes it when it is experiencing an economic crisis, he added.
Regarding the ruling party, Barrientos maintained that “everything that does harm to the MAS seems like good news to me” and anticipated that this force will have more problems when it attends the primaries because its social sectors are divided.
“They don’t know what a massacre it’s going to be when they have to define the candidates,” he predicted.
In that context, he said that the opposition forces must continue “building an alternative” for 2025, but thinking that “politics in Bolivia is very changeable and anything can happen.”
“The MAS fissure is political, but not ideological,” Cortez
For social researcher Róger Cortez, the fissure “is real, political and social, but not ideological” because both factions of the ruling party “completely agree with the statist, centralist, control economy and have turned the Judicial Branch into their political police.” ”.
In this dispute, Cortez highlighted that beyond the division of parliamentarians, the control of the prosecutor’s offices and the Plurinational Constitutional Court (TCP) is more important, which he accuses of having “prevaricated” against the Constitution for having favored Morales in the past.
The future of the fight between Morales and Arce in their nomination for 2025 will depend on “how the judicial forces align” and the Supreme Electoral Court, he maintained.
The lack of independence of Justice has been questioned by national and international institutions, and this year a new election was to be held at the magistrates’ polls, but the process is on hold in Parliament due to the fight between “evistas”, “arcistas” and opponents.
The problems of the MAS could aggravate the “negative trend” of the economy expressed in the fiscal deficit, the increase in debt, the reduction of international reserves and unemployment, but it considers that the opposition does not have the capacity to challenge that reality. therefore “he is co-responsible” for what happens.
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