The scenario for retail remains very fragile due to inflation that insists on not bending in the face of successive interest rate hikes. But even so, the Boa Vista Trade Movement Indicator – leading indicator of sales – points to an advance of 1.5% in May compared to April.
This means that if the Boa Vista indicator confirms adherence to May sales, the month in which Mother’s Day was celebrated, the Monthly Trade Survey (PMC) in May may bring more robust numbers than those recorded in April.
According to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), in April, retail sales using the restricted retail concept, which excludes the sale of vehicles and construction materials, grew 0.3% in relation to March. Based on the expanded retail concept – which also includes sales of vehicles and construction materials – they rose 0.8%.
The IBGE PMC for the month of May is expected to be released on July 13th.
According to the economist from Boa Vista, Flavio Calife, retail performance in the month followed a 0.9% rise in April on the same basis of comparison, but still records a fall of 0.8% in the moving quarter ended in May against the previous quarter. immediately preceding mobile, according to seasonally adjusted data.
In the series of original data, the indicator dropped 1.8% in the interannual comparison, but the result accumulated in the year remains positive, with an increase of 1.1% against the same period last year. In the long-term analysis, measured by the accumulated variation in 12 months, the indicator not only decelerated but also showed a retraction of the sector, of 0.2%, compared to a positive growth of 1.3% until the month of April. .
The rise in the month, according to Boa Vista, had several factors, among them, the release of the FGTS withdrawal, which according to the Ministry of Economy benefited about 24.9 million workers, injecting something close to R$ 17.9 billion in the economy.
“It is worth mentioning that the FGTS should also contribute to the sector in the month of June, given that the withdrawals ended on the 15th of this month. Another important point was the increase in the confidence of traders in the month, more motivated, perhaps, due to Mother’s Day”, said Calife.
But, more than that, according to him, it is worth noting that the numbers of the job market had a good evolution between the months of March and April. The unemployment rate fell from 11.1% to 10.5%, the lowest level since February 2016, when it hit the 10.3% mark for the Economically Active Population (EAP).
The problem, according to Boa Vista, continues to be inflation and the basic interest rate. The first even decelerated from April to May, from 12.13% to 11.73%, but still remains high. The Selic rate, which is now at 13.25% per year, according to Calife, has already started to take effect, but the cost of putting inflation back on a path that leads to the target tends to be a high Selic rate for longer.
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