Much is at stake as Joe Biden waves to Vladimir Putin on a video link on Tuesday afternoon. The US and Europe will hit Russia hard financially if it dares to attack Ukraine, Biden warns.
Putin waves a friendly wave at the camera and Biden raises both arms in greeting. He chuckles and tells the Russian leader that he hopes to meet him in person next time. “Good to see you again,” he begins, as Putin connects from Sochi on the Black Sea to the White House in Washington.
But there are great tensions behind those warm words, heard in a short video distributed on Russian state TV. Biden fears Putin plans to invade Ukraine and wants to talk him out of it. He would make clear to him ‘professional, clear and straightforward’, one of his staffers described in advance, what the US is prepared to do, ‘with regard to both deterrence and diplomacy.’
Ukraine is desperate for support from powerful allies in Washington as Russia is suspected of preparing an invasion. US intelligence services signal that tens of thousands of Russian troops have gathered at the border and believe the Kremlin is considering invading.
Far-reaching sanctions
One thing is clear, also for Putin: the White House has no appetite for direct involvement of American troops. “The United States does not want to find itself in a situation where the focus of our countermeasures is on direct deployment of US military personnel,” the White House official said. But Washington is willing to provide military support to Ukraine and NATO allies in Eastern Europe, and has far-reaching financial sanctions in store.
This concerns, for example, financial penalties for Russian energy companies and oligarchs in the circle around Putin. A more extreme option is also to cut Russia off from the international banking system. Such measures could have quite a few repercussions in Europe, which needs Russian gas and fears Putin could cut the supply in revenge.
Biden thinks he will get his European friends along when it comes to that. He phoned his fellow leaders in Germany, France, Italy and the United Kingdom prior to his meeting with Putin to fine-tune Putin’s message. He will also call Ukrainian President Zelensky this week.
“We think we have a way forward with significant economic countermeasures from both Europeans and the United States, which would cause serious economic damage to the Russian economy if they choose to press ahead,” said Biden’s associate.
Putin receives that message from behind a long wooden table, headed by a large screen showing Joe Biden. It is expected that the Russian president will also make demands in the conversation. Putin, for example, wants to prevent Ukraine, historically in the Russian sphere of influence, from joining NATO under the current Western-oriented government. The White House maintains that it is not about that, and that it is up to Ukraine and NATO to decide.
setback
Tensions over Ukraine are a setback for Biden. He had hoped to stabilize relations with Russia so that he can turn his attention to competition with China, the country he sees as America’s main rival.
He also held a video conference with Chinese leader Xi Jinping last month. Biden believes that it is always best to keep in touch, even when there is a threat of war. The video call with Putin represents a moment of truth for that theory. Biden will want to show the US and the world that his personal relationships with other world leaders are producing results, as he promised US voters.
The US warns against a Russian invasion of neighboring Ukraine. The residents of the eastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv are left and worried, as can be seen in the video below:
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