With just over two months left in the White House, Joe Biden is running out of time to expedite the delivery of funds and weapons to ensure that Ukraine can continue fighting the Russian invasion.
The White House is accelerating the transfer of weapons and up to $6 billion to Ukraine as much as possible. Meanwhile, kyiv and its defenders are calling on the White House to lift restrictions on long-range weapons and find other sources of funding for the war before Donald Trump takes office in January.
Before each presidential transition, Administration officials repeat the mantra that they respond to “one president at a time.” Biden will remain in complete control of US foreign policy until Trump takes office on January 20, but the possibility of a radical shift in US Ukraine policy under Trump makes it unlikely that any major changes initiated by Biden will remain during the next Government.
Biden will receive Trump this Wednesday at the White House for a key meeting in which the acting president is expected to urge Trump to continue financing Ukraine, in addition to addressing a broad foreign policy agenda, an issue on which they rarely agree. .
White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said in a television interview this week that Biden would use his final 70 days to tell Trump and Congress, which could be under Republican control in both chambers, that “the United States is not must move away from Ukraine and that moving away from Ukraine means more instability in Europe.”
Sullivan did not respond to a question about whether Biden would propose an additional funding bill for Ukraine.
According to the first information, Trump has chosen Florida Senator Marco Rubio as the future Secretary of State. Rubio was one of the Republican senators who followed Trump’s guidelines and voted against the $95 billion military aid package for Ukraine, which was stalled until last April. In recent interviews, Rubio has asserted that Ukraine needs to seek a negotiated agreement with Russia to end the conflict and set aside its attempts to recover occupied territories. “I’m not on Russia’s side, but unfortunately, the reality is that the way the war in Ukraine is going to end is with a negotiated settlement,” Rubio told NBC in September.
Meanwhile, statements by one of the main candidates for a position in the Trump Administration have increased doubts about the continuity of financing to Ukraine during the next Government. “The American people want sovereignty protected here in the United States before we spend our funds and resources protecting the sovereignty of another nation,” said Senator Bill Hagerty, a Trump ally.
The current Administration is unlikely to be able to pass additional aid through Congress, but there is still $6 billion in pending aid that can be allocated before Biden leaves office. Members of the American government recognize that, after that, Ukraine will have to focus mainly on Europe to secure support.
The Pentagon has sent a small number of American defense contractors to Ukraine to maintain and repair F-16s and Patriot missile defense systems. According to a recent report from the Wall Street Journal, the Pentagon is accelerating the delivery of more than 500 missile interceptors to Ukraine before the end of Biden’s term, in response to the possibility that Russia is saving its own missiles for a massive bombing raid. against Ukrainian cities or energy infrastructure during the winter.
Senior US and European officials made efforts to “shield” much of the support for Ukraine, transferring to NATO the coordination of the delivery of weapons to kyiv, a responsibility that until then fell to the US, given the fear of Trump’s possible return to the White House.
“The current aid package only covers until the end of this year, and Ukrainians cannot fight adequately without US military support,” says Richard Fontaine, CEO of the Center for a New American Security think tank. “As we saw earlier this year, during the gap between aid packages, Europe cannot fill all the gaps. Neither does Ukraine. So, if Trump cuts aid, it will completely change the dynamics on the ground and, therefore, the outcome of the war,” he adds.
Between potentially sending more supplemental packages or weapons, inviting Ukraine into NATO, or lifting restrictions on long-range strikes on Russia, there appears to be little the Biden administration can do that will have a lasting impact.
Ivo Daalder, former US permanent representative to the NATO Council, says: “Whatever is done by executive orders can be changed the next day.” Noting the Biden Administration’s limited options regarding Ukraine, Israel and other issues during this period, Daalder adds: “In reality, they will just try to stay afloat. “I don’t see what lasting action they could take that Trump can’t reverse.”
The Biden administration, which prided itself on its foreign policy triumphs, has few achievements to highlight in its final stage. A senior Democratic congressman says the Biden administration’s “universe” of foreign policy achievements has “shrinked” over the past eight or nine months, as US influence in Ukraine and the Middle East has declined.
Before the election, some foreign diplomats in Washington had expressed frustration with the Biden administration’s indecision over Ukraine, its delay in disbursing aid and its unwillingness to take risks under Security Adviser Jake Sullivan. National.
David Kramer, CEO of the George W. Bush Institute and a former State Department official who worked on issues linked to Russia and Ukraine, maintains that “the Biden Administration deserves credit for its sanctions regime, for maintaining unity among allies and for providing assistance to Ukraine. However, Ukrainians are deeply frustrated with the decision-making process, with the way aid is being provided, with the restrictions imposed, especially regarding long-range weapons systems, and with not “an invitation to join NATO has been extended to Ukraine.”
As uncertainties following Trump’s victory loom over Ukraine, the president-elect appears to be preparing to cut or severely limit aid to this country. Trump has announced that neither former ambassador to the UN, Nikki Haley, nor former Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, both strong defenders of kyiv during his previous government, will be part of his new cabinet. And his son Donald Trump Jr recently tweeted a video of Volodymyr Zelensky with the caption: “Perspective: You are 38 days away from losing your benefit.”
Time is running out and some Ukrainian advocates are calling for bolder measures. In particular, they urge that restrictions on long-range missiles be lifted, which would allow Ukraine to attack targets in the Russian rear with guided missiles.
Melinda Haring, a senior adviser at Razom, a nonprofit that sends aid to Ukraine, and a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council think tank, says: “I think there is a strong consensus that President Biden should step aside their fears about a possible escalation. “President Putin is not going to start a nuclear war with the change of government, so the time to do it is now.”
Furthermore, Haring points out that another great opportunity that the Biden Administration has in its hands is to seize and transfer $5 billion from the Russian Central Bank’s reserves. “It is crucial to do it now to ensure it is done correctly, and all eyes are on the Biden Administration,” he adds.
As for the possibility of reaching an agreement, analysts and officials say that any serious negotiations will have to take place under the next president, with Ukraine in a much more unfavorable position than it is now.
“The reality is that neither Putin nor Zelensky can any longer worry about what Biden or his members of the Government like or not because they will be gone in two and a half months,” says Daalder.
Translation by Julián Cnochaert.
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