The United States has repeatedly warned Russia that if its troops enter Ukrainian soil it will have serious consequences.
If the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan ended up fueling the confrontation between the West and the communist bloc to levels close to a world conflagration, the annexation of Crimea, the war in Donbass and, now, Russia’s threats to invade Ukraine have put the planet in a situation also very complicated.
The Russian and American presidents, Vladimir Putin and Joe Biden, will hold a video conference today to try to prevent the existing tensions from leading to a great war. Hence the enormous expectation that the meeting has generated. But the positions are so distant that it is almost impossible to deduce that something hopeful will come out of the meeting.
In the Kremlin they are aware of this to the point that their spokesman, Dmitri Peskov, even said yesterday that “it is difficult to expect any progress in these negotiations.” In his words, “we will at least hope that the two leaders can transfer their concerns to each other.” “It is always better to communicate,” he added.
The United States has repeatedly warned Russia that if its troops enter Ukrainian soil it will have serious consequences and not just in the form of more sanctions. “What I’m doing is putting together what I think will be the most comprehensive and meaningful set of initiatives to make it very, very difficult for Putin to go ahead and do what people are concerned that he can do,” Biden said Friday.
The German newspaper Bild has published on Sunday the supposed scheme of the Russian invasion plan of Ukraine and, according to the sources it cites (NATO and Ukrainian intelligence), it will carry it out from several fronts: from the Russian region of Kursk, from the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic, from the Crimea and even from Belarus. Bild estimates that the Russian Army offensive will take place “towards the end of January or the beginning of February” of 2022. According to different sources, it will involve between 175,000 and 195,000 troops.
Kiev, however, has not stood still in the face of the threat to its security, it has sent more and more troops to the Donetsk border. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited the soldiers deployed there on the front line yesterday to give them encouragement on the occasion of the 30th anniversary of the formation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. He chatted with them in the trenches, brought them gifts and promised victory thanks to the drones acquired from Turkey, the production of which, according to Zelenski, will soon take place on Ukrainian soil as well.
Mediation between Moscow and Kiev
On Thursday, during their meeting in Stockholm, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov opened the door to the possibility of the US mediating between Kiev and Moscow to avoid a war and achieve at once put an end to the conflict with the separatists in the east of the country.
To do this, according to Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Riabkov, what is needed is for Biden to “accept the security guarantees that Russia demands.” The first thing to be avoided, according to Riabkov, is “a new eastward enlargement of NATO”, thus wanting to make it clear that Ukraine must not join the Alliance under any circumstances. Washington must also commit to preventing NATO from continuing to reinforce its device in countries close to Russia such as the Baltic republics, Poland, Bulgaria or Romania.
But the Ukrainian Foreign Minister, Dmitro Kuleba, has already warned that his country will not give up its commitment to join NATO. “I reject the idea that we should guarantee something to Russia. I insist, it is Russia that must guarantee that it will not continue with its attacks on other countries, “Kuleba said on Friday. Blinken already told Lavrov in Stockholm that Ukraine, as a sovereign country, has its legitimate right to establish whatever alliances it deems appropriate.
While on the American side the signals intensified yesterday that if Putin does not leave Ukraine alone, there will be more sanctions and military aid to Kiev will increase, even with the sending of soldiers, on the Russian side it was hinted that there will be no cessions without substantial counterparts. Even Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko intervened yesterday as a Moscow spokesman, pointing out that NATO’s plans in relation to Ukraine “are unacceptable for Russia and for us.” Without going into detail, Lukashenko has dropped that “things could happen after the New Year (…) from the Black Sea to the Baltic.”
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