Buy & Hold, the independent manager founded by Julián Pascual, Rafael Valera and Antonio Aspas, is confident that this time the success of the policies undertaken by the president of Argentina, Javier Milei, will have long -term development. Hence, the sovereign bono ten years of the southern country represents 4% of the portfolio of the B & H Bonds And be one of the five main positions of the fund, and monopolize 7% in the Flexible B&H.
The thesis is that simply with the Carry The credit risk that is assumed is already compensated. “The risk of losing money is limited While Milei persists in his policies. But if the country is going better, inflation is reduced, confidence in the Argentine weight continues of the fixed income portfolio, during the presentation of the signing perspectives, who added that since they began to buy this sovereign bonus when Milei’s electoral victory occurred at the end of 2023, “We already gain more than 20% revaluation“
“We do not buy anymore because with Macri we already lived that it was unable to reverse the Peronist policies. It is not easy Salaries rise more than inflation, “said Valera, who stressed that it was” unpredictable “to guess what is happening.
Equally unpredictable, Valera knows what will happen with interest rates and, therefore, with the American bond, the global reference for risk -free assets. “It seems a lot simpler to guess what will happen to the Argentine economy In the coming months to determine where the types in the US are going to be or what will happen with tariff I would have believed it. “
In this context “We prefer to be conservativeespecially coming from very good years for fixed income, which is why we have cut the duration of the portfolio to 1.7 years in the B&H DEBT already 2.7 years in the B & h bonds “, He pointed out.
Valera explained that they have increased the weight of floating bonds while reducing exposure to financial subordinated debt. “The coconuts continue to have value, but we are not going to get the profitability of the past, of double digit. And we have the wallet from the point of view of the quieter risk of the last five years at least,” he said.
Buy & Hold’s CEO was incredulous about the behavior of the sovereign bonds of Europe and the US before the first measures announced by Donald Trump. “They are inflationary and that the market takes it on the other side, it is rare. It is best to take distance and think that Trump is impulsive and investors will take it more peacefully than in 2018. He entertains him to move the market to Tuit’s blow but you don’t have to get nervous.
Variable rental portfolio
In the Variable Income Portfolio, Julián Pascual, its head and president of the manager, said they have reduced the weight in the great American technological values while they have increased in Small Capsespecially European, a region that already represents 48% of the portfolio, where ASML, LVMH and Novo Nordisk represent 10%.
A strategy that, as Pascual acknowledged, has not yet worked. “But at some point it will turn around, as happened in the 70s with the crisis of the Nifty Fifty. The small values did better then the following years, as also happened after the crisis Puntocom. We do not know how much more time can happen until the screws change. Now we see the small values boring, but at any time it will turn around, “he said.
Regarding whether the Deepseek appearance can cause a change in perception over the magnificent seven, Pascual commented that it is difficult to say if there is a bubble, although he stressed that unlike the crisis of the early 2000s, now the companies have benefits. But he warned against complacency with the narrative with artificial intelligence. “Since Microsoft took out there, there is no practical application where money wins. And a Chinese firm is suddenly with a 20 -time cost,” he said.
Reason why the B&H manager prefers to bet on a value such as the technological Nagarro that, although it capitalizes only 1,100 million euros, will be a key actor for adapting AI systems to companies.
In the Spanish market, Pascual maintains its commitment to Catalan West, Vidrala, Cie and Amadeus. And about the latest corporate news, he was blunt. “Indra is a company too politically and historically has not done a value work for shareholders. Telefónica is in a business that has been comfortable in which the government has entered as an elephant in a pot. And the BBVA and Sabadell OPA has an uncertain result. Banking concentration in Spain has not generated value for shareholders, “he concluded.
At the manager’s business, their responsible stressed that They have exceeded 700 million euros in patrimonial volume. “I am surprised by this figure. But it is very difficult Capture new customers. “It is very difficult that on a first visit the potential clients invest, but then bring us to their circle of trust,” he added.
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