Hurricane Beryl was an exceptional climatic phenomenon according to the records of the last 50 years in Mexico, so its detailed study is necessary for its full understanding and to advance prevention measures.
According to specialist Claudia Rojas Serna, a researcher at the Department of Process Engineering and Hydraulics at the Autonomous Metropolitan University (UAM), at least two factors make this recent natural phenomenon an anomaly.
“This cyclone, ‘Beryl’, is really a surprise because, in the history of hurricanes that have been recorded, it is exceptional, firstly, because it is very rare for a category 4 or 5 hurricane to appear in the Atlantic before August,” he explained in an interview.
Rojas Serna, who has specialized in Advanced Hydrological Modeling, points out that the phenomenon that impacted Quintana Roo even preceded “Dennis” and “Emily”, both of which occurred in July 2005, since it was declared as such at the end of June.
While it is important to consider that hurricane records are still scarce, covering barely half a century, they are enough to declare “Beryl” an exception.
Based on the information currently available during her recent visit to Mexico, the researcher believes that one of the causes of this earlier date could have been the prolonged periods of drought that have occurred in the country recently.
“As these droughts have intensified, and in fact we still have areas where drought exists or persists, the way in which the planet has to maintain, or try to maintain, some balance between meteorological variables and the balance of life on Earth, is by looking for a way to compensate for this lack of rain,” he explains.
“Various studies have shown that, as a result of prolonged droughts, we will have intense rainfall, and that, obviously, will cause flooding, and to have these intense rainfalls, one way to do so, in a relatively shorter time frame, is with the rains or storms of hurricanes that occur,” he adds.
The studies that are now being carried out on Beryl, he points out, should focus on this relationship between the periods of drought and the way in which they could have brought forward the formation of this tropical cyclone.
The second factor that makes this hurricane an exceptional case has to do with its accelerated intensification.
“In about 42 hours, it went from being a tropical depression to a Category 4 hurricane, which is a record time, very short for the evolution of a hurricane in the Atlantic,” said Rojas Serna.
Subject to the studies that are being carried out with the most recent information, the researcher believes that this rapid intensification could have occurred due to the change from the “El Niño” to the “La Niña” period.
That is, due to the transition from the warm period of the sea surface, where we are currently, to the cold period.
“The estimates from the National Hurricane Center, particularly from the United States Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Monitoring, indicate that in the coming months it is very likely that we will move into the ‘La Niña’ period,” he explains.
“If this happens, according to these estimates, the change we have from ‘El Niño’ to ‘La Niña’ in the coming months will facilitate, precisely, the intensity of the hurricanes that have already formed,” he adds.
On the other hand, Rojas Serna also believes that, although it is not the only factor, climate change is causing this intensification of hurricanes.
“Ocean temperatures are increasing and this is partly due to the influence of the increase in temperature on the Earth’s surface, because the oceans are very good at capturing temperature and storing it,” he describes.
“High ocean temperatures alone do not facilitate the formation of cyclones, but when a tropical storm has already formed and finds more humidity and energy in a warmer sea, it will find conditions for its growth,” he explains.
As for the coming months, with the arrival of the “La Niña” phenomenon, the researcher has already begun to formulate her forecast.
“In the Atlantic, or those that could hit the Caribbean and then move towards the Gulf of Mexico, as in the case of ‘Beryl’, we could have more intense hurricanes,” he warns.
“It doesn’t mean a greater number of hurricanes, but it does mean more intense hurricanes, unlike in the Pacific, where hurricanes would probably be less intense,” he concludes.
The differences with ‘Otis’
With the ravages of Hurricane Otis, which occurred in October last year, still visible in the port of Acapulco, the assessment of Beryl shows that, fortunately, it behaved in the opposite way.
“Unlike ‘Otis’, instead of increasing in intensity, ‘Beryl’ did the opposite, because we started monitoring it when it was a Category 5 and from there we saw how it degraded,” Rojas Serna compares.
“Beryl made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane, which is lower than Otis, which we started monitoring as a tropical storm and in a very short time it increased to a Category 5 hurricane; the intensity of the two hurricanes evolved in reverse,” he said.
Regarding both cases, the specialist points out that, although it is natural that there is justified uncertainty regarding the evolution of a hurricane, the lack of confidence in intensity forecasts ended up leading to greater preventive measures being taken.
“Having a lack of confidence in these forecasts allowed us to be more prepared, so not sticking to that forecast made us doubt that it could intensify in a different way, and that, in a way, has forced us to be more prepared and to be more cautious,” he reflects.
Thus, although both hurricanes made landfall in the early morning, during the most difficult hours for monitoring, there was a possibility of better prevention with “Beryl.”
Pending studies
Once Hurricane Beryl has passed, experts will seek to obtain specific data to understand how this case became unique in its kind.
“On the one hand, I want to know the atmospheric pressure at the time the hurricane hit,” says Rojas Serna.
“It is not just the atmospheric pressure that is present in the eye of the hurricane, but also the variation in pressure in the eye of the hurricane and that which existed at the time the hurricane occurred,” he said.
“That’s really something I’d like to know in order to have more information regarding the evolution of the intensity of ‘Beryl’.”
According to the Advanced Hydrological Modeling specialist, Mexico does have the infrastructure to carry out reliable hurricane forecasts, but it can still improve to be on par with other countries.
“Unfortunately, we do not yet have the same infrastructure with which we could have more information regarding the evolution of hurricane intensities,” he laments.
Unlike the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami, Mexico does not yet have precision tools like hurricane-hunting planes.
“The great advantage of having them is that these planes are sent to take variables at the time, in the place where the hurricane occurs,” he points out.
“They can enter the eye of the hurricane and even drop probes that can capture the meteorological variables at that moment and thus provide information to forecast models that allow us to better understand how the hurricane could evolve.”
Although the Miami-based institute was designated to monitor the entire area and provides valuable information, Rojas Serna believes that Mexico would benefit from having real-time information, especially for disaster prevention.
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