It was after 2 pm on November 30 when a large explosion caused panic among residents of the Polish city of Wlodawa, on the triple border with Belarus and Ukraine. The detonation had occurred on the Ukrainian side of the border, it was the result of the work of military engineers dynamiting a bridge that connected the country with Belarus.
“The noise of the explosion was very loud, all the windows in the house shook and the ground vibrated,” said Malgorzata Grzechula, who lives about 500 meters from the Belarusian border. According to her, many people panicked, as the city is in constant tension due to the proximity of the border.
That tension rose again last week, when Russian President Vladimir Putin went to Belarus to meet with dictator Alexander Lukashenko. The two meet relatively frequently in Moscow, but since 2019 Putin has not been to Belarus.
Officially, the visit was aimed at dealing with economic issues – such as the sale of Russian gas at a subsidized price to the allied country. But it was interpreted by military analysts as an attempt by the Kremlin to pressure Minsk into more active participation in the war in Ukraine.
The country was used in February and March of this year by Russian troops to launch an invasion of northern Ukraine. Since the start of the war, Minsk has also allowed its hospitals to be used for wounded Russian fighters and its airspace to be used by planes from Moscow to launch bombing raids on Ukraine.
Today, Ukrainian government and military analysts speculate that Belarusian territory could again be used in some scenarios. One hypothesis is a new ground offensive aimed at taking the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, which is about 80 kilometers south of the border.
The second scenario is an invasion in northwest Ukraine, in the Kovel region, close to the tri-border area. The objective of such an action would be to advance from north to south in order to conquer western Ukraine and thus prevent the country from continuing to receive armaments from its European allies. These heavy weapons cannot be transported by air at the current juncture and mainly enter through the Polish border.
The third possible scenario is that Putin’s visit, as well as military exercises being held jointly by troops from Russia and Belarus, are part of a “diversionary action”. That is, an action aimed at deceiving the Ukrainian generals.
That is, the new invasion may not happen, but, when in doubt, Kyiv will have to maintain a large contingent of troops to defend the region. Therefore, these soldiers are unable to act on other fronts of the war that are more active today, mainly in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia.
There is also the possibility that Belarus will enter the war directly. Lukashenko has been in power since 1994 and owes that to the Kremlin, which supports him politically and provides financial and military resources.
In his fifth “election”, in 2020, the dictator of Belarus was the target of a severe protest movement. Thousands of protesters took to the streets complaining of fraud in the elections. With Russia’s support in politics and the security apparatus, Lukashenko managed to violently repress the protests and remained in power.
In other words, Lukashenko owes a lot to Putin, who is now picking up the tab for decades of support.
On the other hand, the leader of Belarus has a lot to lose with the war. Like Putin, he can put his regime on the line in the event of a defeat – especially at a time when the country’s population seems unwilling to support a war against Ukraine, after watching the deaths of tens of thousands of Russian fighters in the fields. of battle of the southern neighbor.
Furthermore, the consequences of a possible escalation of the war must enter into Lukashenko’s political account. In the worst case scenario, the war could at some point evolve into direct participation by NATO, the Western military alliance. In that case, it is not certain that Moscow would be able to come to the aid of Belarus, which does not have nuclear weapons and has a conventional army considered weak.
During Putin’s visit, the possible training of pilots from Belarus to fly carrying different types of weapons was discussed. In other words, a veiled threat that Russian nuclear weapons may be transferred to Belarus.
land preparation
But Ukrainians seem unwilling to rely on Lukashenko’s political skill to stay out of the war. The explosion felt in Wlodawa is an indication of this.
I spoke with a military engineer, who asked not to be named. He claimed to have worked on mining on the northern border of Ukraine. He reported that the ground was prepared with minefields, improvised explosives in booby traps, trench nets and firing positions.
In this context, tactics from the Great Wars mix with modern technology, with explosive traps triggered by infrared rays and portable weapons capable of efficiently destroying armored vehicles and helicopters.
The objective is to direct the flow of a possible new Russian invasion to favorable areas, where they are vulnerable to Ukrainian artillery bombardments.
But how capable would Russia be of launching a new offensive in early 2023?
For the Ukrainian government, it is interesting to advertise the imminence of this attack to get more support in terms of resources and weapons from the West.
When President Volodymyr Zelensky visited the United States last week, President Joe Biden announced yet another military aid package equivalent to R$9.5 billion. The British had announced days before the shipment of artillery ammunition worth BRL 1.5 billion for the next year of military campaign in Ukraine.
Then the US Congress passed a $45 billion aid package for Ukraine, part of a $1.66 trillion US government funding bill through the end of the current fiscal year (September 30).
If the Russian attack takes place, Kyiv must have the necessary backing of financial resources and weapons to resist. If it doesn’t happen, these resources can be used to liberate more occupied territories.
Russia began its invasion of Ukraine in February with around 200,000 fighters. According to the Pentagon, at least half of that contingent was put out of action, counting dead and wounded. Similar casualties would have occurred on the Ukrainian side.
Putin ordered the mobilization of another 318,000 fighters in September, but of that contingent, only about 70,000 have reached the battlefields. Many soldiers are being sent on an emergency basis, without the necessary training, if only to try to keep the territory already conquered by Moscow.
Last Friday (23), the UK Ministry of Defense stated that Russia is considering increasing its armed forces by 30%, which would bring the number of Russian fighters to 1.5 million. But not all would be sent to Ukraine. The idea would be to reinforce the northwest region of Russia due to the likely entry into NATO of Finland and Sweden.
At least 5,100 Russian tanks have already been destroyed, according to estimates by the organization Oryx, which counts numbers of equipment casualties in the war through supporting photos.
However, it is not known for sure what is the current capacity of Moscow to have more tanks, artillery and missiles.
For now, soldiers seem to be the cheapest resource to send to war. Many Russian units are operating primarily with infantry, with few tanks and artillery.
Western military analysts, such as those at the think tank Institute for War Studies, say a new invasion of Ukraine from Belarus does not seem imminent.
In any case, the country would not be able to change the balance of the war, if it decided to enter the conflict. Belarus is estimated to have around 40,000 fighters. They could fight as part of Russian strike groups, but would hardly act as independent armies. Belarusian military equipment, such as tanks and planes, however, can be very useful to Moscow.
But Lukashenko knows his regime could again be threatened by internal revolts if his soldiers are sent to war.
Their hope now must be that giving up their territory again to an eventual new Russian onslaught will satisfy President Putin.
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