Until now, most managers were offering more or less optimistic perspectives for next year’s market context. Until now. Beka has presented the discordant tone and draws a panorama in which predicts that there will be a recession in the United States in 2025.
From the investment firm, they believe that the market could be underestimating the economic and structural risks. And, in fact, they point out that the turning point has already occurred with the last meeting of the US Federal Reserve held this Thursday. That the Fed has erased two interest rate cuts by 2025 supports its theory that the US economy will begin to show signs of exhaustion.
Until now, public spending, consumption and the ability to raise wages have been the engines and pillars on which the US economy has remained. However, they point out that There are already signs of weakening in employmentFor example, with the workforce reduction that large companies are having to carry out. Furthermore, they explain that in terrain indicative of recession. “The US economy, despite expansive fiscal policies, could experience a drop in consumption and employment due to the impact of high interest rates and the lower savings capacity of households,” they explained.
Part of the problem will come from Trump, whose policies in the past have already had a negative impact on the economy. “The uncertainty surrounding the Trump 2.0 administration, with tariffs and protectionist measures, adds pressure to global growth,” the manager explains. So, During the term of the Republican candidate they expect a contraction of the US GDP of 2.8% and a 4% increase in inflation. The Fed is also changing its vision and is now alert to the policies that Trump may develop and the impact that these may have and they expect rates to end in 2025 at around 3-3.5%.
With this American scenario as a backdrop, they point out that Europe will also have to deal with recession in the first part of the year to gradually improve in the second half of 2025. However, they explain, tariff history shows that variable income The US tends to do better and that is what they expect to happen in 2025. The S&P 500 will perform better than the European stock market, but They estimate falls that could reach 15%.
Your investment ideas for 2025
In this sense, They recommend investing in value securities which tend to behave in these periods of uncertainty better than growth. “Investors should prioritize a combination of defense, quality and companies with strong fundamentals,” they explained. With proper names, some of these investment ideas would be BNP Paribas, Allianz, Inditex, Volkswagen, Deutsche Telekom, TotalEnergies, Siemens or Caterpillar.
In fixed income, they are betting on high-quality debt and they also add that investors should combine all this with safe haven products. 20% of your investments should be allocated to alternative products such as hedge funds, private equity, gold, real estate or private debt.
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