Credit Agricole’s move to Banco Bpm gives a new shock to banking risk in Italy. The purchase of 9.2% of the capital of the institute in Piazza Meda by the French group gave a shock to the shares of the banking sector in Piazza Affari, still suffering after the correction last February. For Banco Bpm, the market now expects an operation based on the Credito Valtellinese model. In 2018 the French group acquired 5% of the Valtellinese institute, then increased to 9.8%, and in 2021 it launched a takeover bid. The path, according to some analysts contacted by Adnkronos, should be similar, with the only uncertainty of the times.
“I would be surprised if the timing changes and I think it will be longer than the market expects,” said Andrea Scauri, Lemanik’s Italy equity manager. The French group, which has not yet requested the authorization to go up to more than 10% of the institute in Piazza Meda, could stand still waiting to see the reaction of politics and the stock, as well as the general situation of the economy, with the impact of rising interest rates and slowing growth. But on the political side, Scauri explains, “the current government is very pro-European and will not get in the way.”
For Gianrito Nicodemo, manager of Zest, a Swiss asset management group, on the other hand, the transaction could be “much faster” than in the two years before the Creval takeover. However, the valuation at which Credit Agricole bought the stake in Banco Bpm is “rather low”, given the discount levels on the book of around 60%. “At these prices, the acquisition would require a rather substantial premium for shareholders, also because the bank’s capital position has improved considerably and CEO Castagna has done an excellent job.”
In any case, the integration of Banco Bpm into the French group is appreciated by analysts. According to a report by Intesa Sanpaolo, the bank led by Giuseppe Castagna is “a perfect candidate to be included in the consolidation process” and its integration into Credit Agricole “industrially would make sense, because it would strengthen their competitive positioning and generate synergies”. According to Equita, the acquisition of the stake is “positive for Banco Bpm given that on the one hand it is proof of the solidity of future prospects from an operational point of view, on the other hand we believe it revives the speculative appeal on the stock, in light of the presence of a quality industrial investor like Credit Agricole, with a proven track record in M&A “.
It remains to be seen what the reaction of Unicredit will be, which in recent months would have examined the option of an offer on Banco Bpm. “If Unicredit were to break the delay and launch a takeover bid, it would do so at a high price and the delay would be difficult to justify,” says Scauri. The intervention of the French group, then, puts the bank in Piazza Gae Aulenti in difficulty, “already in a difficult situation due to the situation in Russia. Now it will be more complicated to say no to the government to an acquisition of MPS”.
For Nicodemus, however, the hypothesis of a battle with takeover bids “is quite remote. A bloody war on the price is not convenient for either Unicredit or Credit Agricole”. And if Unicredit still remains “the first candidate” to take over Mps when it is recapitalized, the Piazza Gae Aulenti group could not limit itself to external growth in Italy. “The sales of the former ad Mustier have created holes, so the group could look abroad to increase its capabilities. And Andrea Orcel – concludes Nicodemo – has all the expertise to search for its prey also abroad”.
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