The implicit risk in the current context is too high to maintain the Investment strategy approach Designed at the beginning of the year. The current geopolitics and the tariff war initiated by Donald Trump leads to Bankinter to reduce exposure to the bag in the planning of the portfolios for the second quarter of 2025, to the point that neither the most aggressive profile would be worth maintaining A position in such high sharesas scheduled on January 1.
From the entity, exposure to the stock market is generalized in 10 percentage points that leave the most aggressive profile with 70% of variable income, 50% for the dynamic investor, the moderate 25% and the more defensive with 20% In actions. Uncertainty is too high to avoid tactical adjustment for 2025 in a context in which tariff war and the pressure of raising the Deficit in Europe to finance rearme They alter the macroeconomic forecasts of half the world, although the scope cannot be calculated at the moment. “Honestly, nobody knows almost anything in this new context of continuous confusion. […] The only really true thing is that the risks move upwards, after a containment period, “they comment in their latest report from Bankinter.
This preventive and tactical decision of the investment bank is based on a scenario in which the expectations of growth of the economy and inflation have changed. And this will leave its impact on the benefits of traded companies. The firm’s forecasts are based on previous historical periods where large tariffs were applied (during the two world wars) and trade suffered a decrease. This led to A reduction in economic growthto greater inflation and less employment growth. “That results in a decrease in the business benefits that are those that affect the valuations of the companies and, by extension, the evolution of the medium and long term bags,” they explain from Bankinter.
A rise prices could also force central banks to increase their interest rates again to counteract an inflationary escalation. “We are not better than three or twelve months ago, but worse,” the entity’s analysis department synthesizes from the bank.
Although it does not explain all the threats facing the financial market in 2025, from Bankinter they do consider that Trump is an elementary disruptive factor to raise this uncertainty and affects Wall Street more zeal to date. Therefore, they reduce the assessment in the United States Stock Exchange that at these prices would barely leave bullish potential.
On the other hand, in Europe the bags would be overvalued at these prices. Yes they make an exception for Spanish variable income that would remain stable. By sectors, they opt for Defense and cybersecuritywith preference for Utilities and the infrastructure bouquet for its high dividends.
Volatility also extends to the debt market, where Bankinter’s preference would focus on short and medium durations (maximum five years), given the Business Profitability Equation that present the longest maturities. In the same way, they consider that credit offers greater protection than sovereign bonds although always choosing high quality debt before the High Yield.
As for the trajectory of the main currencies of the market, from the entity they expect the dollar to maintain its strength in front of the euro or the sterling pound. “The Federal Reserve is not in a hurry to lower the types and differential of types with the eurozone plays in favor of the stability of the dollar“They commented from Bankinter. On the other hand, they do expect that the depreciation of the Japanese Yen will be reversed as the Bank of Japan will harden its monetary policy.
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