Chancellor candidate Annalena Baerbock and the Greens can improve slightly in the polls for the federal election. A majority would be possible for a new federal government – with three parties.
Munich / Berlin – CDU chancellor candidate Armin Laschet did not get off well in public in the context of the flood disaster in Germany (Eifel). Because of his carefree but documented laughs at the press conferences on the flood drama in North Rhine-Westphalia and Rhineland-Palatinate. Impressions that hurt CDU boss Laschet with a view to the federal election in Germany in 2021?
Survey on the 2021 federal election: Annalena Baerbock makes up percent on Armin Laschet
On Sunday, July 19, at least one INSA poll was published that sees a trend reversal in his challenger. Specifically: Green Chancellor candidate Annalena Baerbock is increasing again, at least in this survey. Accordingly, her party rose in favor of the voters by one percentage point to now 18%. For comparison: In the 2017 federal election, the party won 8.9 percent of the votes nationwide.
|Party to the Bundestag election||Votes / INSA poll, July 19th|
|CDU / CSU||29%|
And even according to the current status, the Greens and their 40-year-old top candidate Annalena Baerbock are still well behind the joint chancellor candidate of the CDU and CSU, Armin Laschet. The two sister parties come to 29% in the INSA survey – this would make the Union again by far the largest parliamentary group after the federal election in 2021.
Annalena Baerbock: Relative majority in the 2021 federal election for the Greens within reach?
But: based on the survey described above, the Greens would suddenly have a relative majority in the Bundestag election. In a completely new government constellation. And that if, in addition to the social democratic SPD (16.5% in the INSA survey), the economically liberal FDP (12%) also opted for a so-called traffic light coalition with the Greens.
In the video: Can the FDP imagine a federal government with the Greens?
But: Whether such a coalition on the part of the Greens and the FDP would be possible because of the sometimes considerable differences in the election programs is completely open. For example, when it comes to taxes, the two parties are far apart, which would make coalition negotiations all the more difficult.
And: “The government education mandate will almost certainly go to the CDU and Armin Laschet,” said FDP leader Christian Lindner recently Stuttgart newspaper. In contrast, he called the Greens’ candidacy for chancellor “an election maneuver”. It is “in truth about: Will it be black and green, will it be black and yellow, will there be a German coalition (Union, SPD, FDP) or a Jamaica coalition (Union, Greens, FDP)?”
Survey on the federal election 2021: traffic light coalition with Baerbock, Jamaica coalition with Armin Laschet?
Meanwhile, according to the INSA survey, a coalition of CDU / CSU and FDP (black and yellow) would also lack a relative or even absolute majority, with a combined total of 41%. For Lindner’s described Jamaica coalition with the Greens and the FDP as small coalition partners, according to the current survey, 59% of the votes would be enough. Ergo: The Greens need more votes for themselves until the election on September 26th in order to even bring a traffic light coalition into play. (pm)