Isabel Díaz Ayuso would have achieved a resounding victory in the Madrid elections, according to the first polls published after the polls closed. The PP candidate would not have reached the absolute majority that she longed for, but she would be close. It could rise to 65 seats, only four from the magic figure and 35 more than two years ago. The survey carried out by GAD3 for Telemadrid and Televisión Española also predicts a fall in the PSOE (from 37 to 28), a strong increase in More Madrid although without achieving the ‘sorpasso’ to the socialists, Vox would trace the results of 2019 and the ‘church effect’ would be reduced to ten seats. As expected, Ciudadanos would stay out of the Assembly. In the distribution by blocks, the right could go in the best of cases up to 79 seats and the left, to 63.
If the survey data is confirmed, Díaz Ayuso would have achieved a historic result. Despite the fact that she would not have reached the absolute majority that she had claimed during the campaign to govern with “freedom”, the PP candidate and president of the community would have doubled the figures she obtained just two years ago. In his debut in 2019 he stayed in 30 minutes, far from the 37 that Ángel Gabilondo took. Only thanks to the agreement with Citizens and the external support of Vox did he manage to carry out the investiture.
Fork showing GAD3 places its triumph between 62 and 65 seats. The leader of the PP would have almost completely absorbed the votes that Ciudadanos obtained two years ago. Edmundo Bal’s mission, according to the survey, would have been confirmed as impossible. The orange formation would not obtain any seats, compared to the 26 of the previous call, when it was the third force.
The Vox result would be bittersweet. It would have demonstrated its ability to retain its electorate despite Ayuso’s triumph, but the influence of those from Rocío Monasterio during the next two years could be minimal. The survey indicates that they could be between 12 and 14 seats, but Ayuso’s victory could leave them with little room for maneuver because the leader of the PP alone would add more than the entire left together.
Despite the high mobilization, PSOE, Más Madrid and Unidas Podemos have stayed far from their goal. The Socialists hit each other. From winning the elections in 2019 with 37 seats, to being left with 25 or 28 minutes in the best of cases. The Más Madrid list would rise from 20 to 21 or 24, a significant increase but somewhat below their expectations. United Podemos would be far below, with between 10 and 11 seats.
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