Isabel Díaz Ayuso has swept the Madrid elections. The PP candidate touches an absolute majority, will be able to govern without thinking too much about Vox, by itself it takes more seats than all the left formations combined and has laminated Ciudadanos. In an atypical elections marked by the pandemic, the left had put its last hope in mobilization, in which a high participation allowed to turn around the polls. Madrilenians have gone to the polls en masse, around 75%, but to vote for the PP.
The result of Díaz Ayuso constitutes an absolute triumph. Despite not having reached the absolute majority that she longed for to govern in “freedom” and without ties, the PP candidate and president of the community has enough margin to calmly face the next two years. That is one of the differential facts of Madrid. Despite the electoral advance, citizens will go to the polls again in 2023. The result, in any case, shakes national politics. The exit to the Genoa balcony of Pablo Casado and the entire PP leadership to celebrate the result when 60% of the votes were still counted show that for the popular these elections want to be the first step to kick Sánchez out of La Moncloa.
Ayuso has given a coup of authority. The candidate who was chosen as the headliner by Pablo Casado and who raised serious doubts among many of his party colleagues, has become one of his main references. With a heterodox discourse in which he has placed Madrid as a benchmark for freedom and the opening of the hotel industry as a symbolic gesture against Sanchismo, Ayuso has caused a real political earthquake. In just two years he has doubled his representation, he has completely laminated his government partner (Ciudadanos) and has obtained enough room for maneuver so that Vox cannot put him in too much trouble with his demands.
On his own alone he has won more seats than all the left forces combined. Or what is the same, Vox would have to clearly ally itself with the PSOE, Más Madrid and Unidas Podemos to stop Ayuso’s proposals. Abstention would not be worth it. The result of the far-right formation has a certain bittersweet taste. It was speculated on the possibility that the voters of Vox bet on a certain useful vote, that before the fear of the arrival of the left – the dilemma «communism or freedom» – they would lean towards Ayuso. It has not been so. Vox has held up well, but the overwhelming triumph of the PP lowers the importance of its results. Between the two forces on the right, they would reach 77 seats.
On the other side of the scale, the scene is much bleaker. The left had hoped that a high turnout would turn the polls upside down. The mobilization has been higher than ever, it has touched 80%, but that hypothesis has been shown to be a myth.
The hardest blow was taken by Ángel Gabilondo. Whoever was the winner just two years ago with 37 seats has plummeted to 25. An erratic strategy designed from Moncloa and his little media drag have become a burden for the socialist candidate. In the midst of a totally polarized climate, left-wing voters have not seen Ayuso’s reverse side in the Metaphysics professor.
The only thing that Gabilondo has avoided has been the absolute debacle that the ‘sorpasso’ of Más Madrid would have meant. But for very little. Little consolation for the PSOE. The list headed by Mónica García has become a relative winner of the night. It rises to 24 seats and shows that to the left of the PSOE there is an important bank of voters, as demonstrated in 2015 with the victory of Manuel Carmena. What’s more, the candidacy sponsored by Íñigo Errejón increases its distance with regard to United We Can.
The ‘church effect’ has been reduced to ten seats. The former vice president left the Government to avoid confirming what the polls said: that his formation did not enter the Assembly. In the end he has achieved it, and has even improved positions compared to 2019 when he stayed in seven seats. But even so, its impact will be reduced over the next short term. It also remains to be seen what the future of Iglesias will be, if he will settle for being a simple deputy or will bet on leaving politics immediately.
But if its horizon is complicated, that of Citizens appears black. The polls have confirmed what was expected. Edmundo Bal has been unable to work the miracle. From being in the Government and having 26 seats to not having representation. The liberal formation and Inés Arrimadas are on the edge of the abyss. And all for a change of government in Murcia.
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