Attacks on Yemen are “golden opportunity” for Houthis

Rebels have much to gain from the Red Sea confrontation, according to analysts. They seek to be recognized as a national government, and U.S. strikes help them enhance their internal and external legitimacy. The current escalation between Yemen's Houthi rebel group and the U.S.-led naval coalition in the Red Sea serves Iran-backed militants well. in many ways. In fact, it is even welcome, according to some analysts.

“The Houthis have been looking for an opportunity to confront the United States,” Hisham al-Omeisy, a conflict analyst in Yemen and former director of the Yemeni Information Research Center in Washington, told DW. “For the last eight years, they have been telling their followers that they are at war with the US and Israel, so this is a golden opportunity for them that they need to capitalize on.”

Yemen has been in civil war since 2014, when the Iran-backed Houthi rebel group began fighting the Saudi-backed national government. Nine years of fighting have left Yemen divided between the Houthi-controlled north and west of the country, including the Bab el-Mandeb Strait leading to the Red Sea, and the south, controlled by the internationally recognized government and its domestic allies. Local tribes dominate the east.

Yemen's infrastructure has been badly damaged and the conflict has plunged the population into one of the worst humanitarian crises in the world, according to the United Nations.

Meanwhile, the Houthis – officially called Ansar Allah – are in talks with Saudi Arabia for a long-term ceasefire. This month, US special envoy for Yemen Tim Lenderking is expected to announce a peace deal between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis.

“By forcing the Saudis to accept them [como o governo nacional do Iêmen]the Houthis hope that the rest of the world will follow them and grant them international legitimacy,” said al-Omeisy.

So far, only Iran recognizes the Houthis as the legitimate government of Yemen, Thomas Juneau, an associate professor at the University of Ottawa in Canada and a Middle East analyst, told DW.

“They want to force the international community to deal with them by hijacking ships, firing missiles and negotiating with Saudi Arabia, and they want to be seen as having established themselves as a key member in the Iranian-led 'axis of resistance',” he explains, referring to the network of Iranian-backed groups across the region that oppose the United States and Israel.

Houthis have already “won”

The Houthis' attacks on cargo ships in the Red Sea largely disrupted a vital international trade route and were, according to the militia, a response to Israeli military retaliation in Gaza for the Hamas terrorist attack on October 7, 2023.

“The Houthis' attacks scare me because they threaten our fragile stability,” Manar Saleh, a 20-year-old woman who lives in Yemen's capital Sanaa, told DW. “Yemen has not experienced peace and stability in nine years.” In her opinion, Palestinians in Gaza must be supported, but ideally in ways that do not involve “sacrificing the situation in Yemen again”.

Um Ammar, a mother of five in Sanaa, told DW that she is also willing to support the Palestinians “in every way possible.”

“However, I hope without harming our own country”, he highlights.

“The public is largely supporting the Houthis, as Yemenis are very committed to the Palestinian cause,” Abdulghani al-Iryani, senior researcher at the Yemeni think tank Sanaa Center for Strategic Studies, told DW.

He has observed a change in attitudes toward the Houthis in recent weeks. “The Houthis have finally gained broad popular support after being hated for years, for being too harsh on the people under their control, for their corruption, oppression and supremacist ideology,” al-Iryani tells DW. The Houthis “won this confrontation the day they fired the first missile,” he added.

Military triumph is not necessarily the goal

Mohamed al-Iriani, a researcher at the Yemen Policy Center, said that so far this fight is not about seeking a military victory for the Houthis. As it stands, the US-led naval coalition against the Houthis has not achieved military victory either.

“This gives the Houthis space to provoke further, and their strategy appears to depend on the expectation that the US, currently concerned about its domestic electoral politics, may have a limited ability to respond effectively,” al-Iriani tells DW .

Furthermore, this appears to be a low-cost conflict for the Iran-backed Houthis. A drone attack on a cargo ship in the Red Sea costs around $1,200, while for the US-led alliance the costs are significantly higher. , about 1.5 million dollars per missile, al-Omeisy noted.

Even a ground offensive would benefit the Houthis, he warned. “The presence of military personnel on the ground would reinforce the legitimacy of the Houthis not only in Yemen, but also regionally.”

“We have noticed a trend in recent weeks where even anti-Houthi people are now sympathizing with them,” al-Omeisy said, adding that the rebel group also used the war in Gaza to launch a major recruitment campaign.

“We must remember that this is a country where 80% of the population needs help and many people are impoverished. Therefore, if this situation offers them an opportunity to put bread on the table, through employment in the army or one of the other factions, they will take it,” reports al-Omeisy. “Yemenis do not want a war, but if it is forced on them, they are great fighters, as they have demonstrated over the last eight years.”

DW correspondent Safia Mahdi contributed to this article from Yemen.