The tiny island of Tinian was the launching point for American planes carrying atomic bombs to the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. Now they are opening a new track just south of the ruins dating back to World War II.
On a windy February morning, a few hundred yards away, U.S. airmen refueling Japanese planes during a military exercise using more airstrips, islands, and Japanese planes than the two enemies-turned-allies have ever assembled for exercises in the North Pacific.
“We are not worried about the past, we are worried about the future,” said Colonel Inadome Satoru, commander of Japan’s 9th Air Wing Group. “We can ensure stability by showing strength”.
Asia and the Pacific are heading towards an anxious and well-armed time with echoes of old conflicts and immediate risks. Unsettled by China’s military buildup and territorial threats—along with Russia’s war in Ukraine and doubts about US resolve—nations in the region are bolstering their defense budgets, joint training, manufacturing of weapons and combat-ready infrastructure.
Fear sets in, with China and the US locked in a volatile strategic contest and diplomatic relations at their worst in 50 years.
Regional arms race
Xi Jinping, the leader of China, aims to achieve a “national rejuvenation” that would include displacing the United States as the dominant ruler in the region, controlling access to the South China Sea, and bringing in Taiwan — a self-governing island that China views as lost territory—under the control of Beijing. In response, the United States and many of China’s neighbors are turning to hard power, accelerating the most significant arms race in Asia since World War II.
On March 13, North Korea launched cruise missiles from a submarine for the first time. On the same day, Australia unveiled a $200 billion plan to build nuclear-powered submarines with the United States and Britain.
Japan is also achieving offensive capabilities unmatched since the 1940s thanks to US Tomahawk missiles. India has conducted training with Japan and Vietnam. Malaysia is buying fighter jets from South Korea. US officials are trying to amass a huge arms stockpile in Taiwan to turn it into a “porcupine” that could head off a Chinese invasion, and the Philippines plans to expand airstrips and ports to accommodate its largest US military presence in decades.
None of this can be enough to match China, whose arsenal now includes an ever-increasing supply of missiles and nuclear warheads. At one critical point after another over the past year, the Chinese military has also displayed provocative behavior.: Deploying a record number of military aircraft to threaten Taiwan and firing missiles into Japan’s exclusive economic zone waters for the first time in August; sending soldiers to evict an Indian Army outpost in December, intensifying battles along the 3,400-kilometre border between the two countries; and in February, temporarily blinding the crew of a Philippine patrol boat with a laser and flying dangerously close to a US Navy plane.
Many countries are hoping stronger militaries will discourage China, but the arms race also reflects waning confidence in the US. In many Asian capitals, there is concern about what US policy might produce — the nightmare of an overreaction to Chinese provocations or abandonment with a withdrawal.
The calculations point to an unstable global order, shaped by one-man rule on a more militarized China with slow economic growth, polarized politics in a heavily indebted United States and bolder aggression from Russia and North Korea.
the chinese transformation
The Indo-Pacific is home to 60 percent of the Earth’s population, covers two-thirds of the planet, and accounts for 65 percent of the world’s gross domestic product.
China now spends about $300 billion a year on its military.reports SIPRI, against 22 billion in 2000, adjusted for inflation, only surpassed by the US defense budget of 800 billion dollars.
China’s Navy has already surpassed the US Navy, reaching 360 battleships by 2020, compared to the US’s total of 297, according to the US Office of Naval Intelligence. Beijing’s nuclear arsenal is smaller than that of the United States and Russia, but the gap is narrowing.
The chief scientist at the US Defense Intelligence Agency told Congress in March that China now appears to have the world’s leading arsenal of hypersonic weapons, which can fly at several times the speed of sound and maneuver in flight to avoid interception.
But more than anything, the escalating hostilities with the US have made the region nervous. Raising the level of concern: Statements by US commanders suggesting war could come in 2027, or even 2025, and combative comments from China’s leaders. Qin Gang, the Chinese Foreign Minister, warned in March that conflict between his nation and the US was inevitable if Washington “continues on the wrong path.”
Interdependence in defense
In 2006, Japan and India began sharing security assessments over concerns about China’s efforts to expand airstrips and ports in Asia. Since then, they have signed several agreements that typify the region’s interlocking defense plans. One granted access to mutual bases for supplies and services; another encouraged cooperation in military manufacturing. This year, they have conducted a naval training together and their first joint combat exercise.
Now that missiles from China and North Korea can hit big US bases in Japan and Guam, all branches of the US military have begun aiming for a dispersed focus on the Indo-Pacific, “the prime arena” for security. global, according to the US Department of Defense, which has stationed 300,000 soldiers in the region. The Philippines, Japan, Australia, Palau, Papua New Guinea and US territories across the Pacific are working with US officials to expand military access, often with shared infrastructure.
“Can the United States do it alone?asked US Air Force Col. Jared Paslay, leader of the Pacific Air Forces joint integration team. “I would prefer it not to be so.”
Japan is now the largest bilateral aid donor in Asia. His government is pushing to reinterpret the constitution adopted in 1947. Japan embraced pacifism after terrorizing Asia and losing World War II, but now, like Germany, it is rearming and recently agreed to raise military spending to 2 percent. of GDP, or by 60 percent, over the next five years, which would give it the third largest defense budget in the world.
During a flight break, Capt. Shotaro Iwamoto, 37, a Japanese F-15 pilot, said he had paid a “significant visit” to the site where the atomic bombs that killed tens of thousands of people in Japan were dropped. to American planes. He left determined to put more effort into his English so that he could communicate more quickly and easily with American allies in the air.
Senior commanders from the United States, Japan and Australia also shared a ride to the area. For many, the horror of the last world war and the threats of the present seemed to rise like heat from the island’s old airstrips.
“If we are not a credible deterrent, we could end up in a circumstance where we might have to consider something like this again,” said Captain Robert Graham of the Royal Australian Air Force. “Let’s hope we never see each other there.”
*Chris Buckley contributed reporting to this article.
Damien Cave
THE NEW YORK TIMES
BBC-NEWS-SRC: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/25/world/asia/asia-china-military-war.html, IMPORTING DATE: 2023-05-26 17:00:08
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