The spread of artificial intelligence technology may cause a significant productivity leap in the economy, estimates the Goldman Sachs bank.
Quickly the development of generative i.e. content-producing artificial intelligence can cause significant changes in the labor market, and it may replace a quarter of current jobs in Europe and the United States, a recent report estimates.
The American bank Goldman Sachs estimates in a report published this week that the conversational Chat GPT and other generative artificial intelligences can bring about a significant productivity leap in the economy. Improving productivity would increase the annual world gross domestic product by seven percent in ten years.
The American bank’s report was reported by, among others, a British newspaper Financial Times and a news site Business Insider.
However, the big jump in productivity has its flip side in the labor market. Goldman Sachs estimates that AI technology could affect around 300 million full-time jobs worldwide if it develops as predicted.
The workplaces of white-collar workers are particularly at risk for automation. For example, about 45 percent of administrative staff and lawyers are at risk of losing their jobs to artificial intelligence in the United States and Europe, according to the report. However, over a period of time, new jobs will be created when the economy grows.
All in total, automation enabled by artificial intelligence will somehow affect almost two-thirds of current jobs, Goldman Sachs economists estimate.
For many workers, artificial intelligence could automate less than half of their work tasks, allowing them to focus on more productive work.
Bank economists calculated that partial artificial intelligence automation of jobs could affect 63 percent of the workforce in the United States. About 30 percent of the workforce would not be affected by automation. Such jobs would be in physical and outdoor jobs.
The remaining roughly seven percent of Americans work in jobs where at least half of their jobs could be handled by artificial intelligence. The jobs of these employees were in danger of being lost to automation.
In Europe, the effects are similar, Goldman Sachs estimates in its report.
Goldman Sachs’s report’s assessment of the effects of artificial intelligence on the labor market is similar to previous research by American universities, Business Insider says.
According to a study by Princeton University, University of Pennsylvania and New York University, artificial intelligence can have the greatest impact on the jobs of skilled white-collar workers. There are such jobs in law firms, for example.
Also, the Open AI research center, which created the GPT-4 artificial intelligence behind the Chat GPT artificial intelligence bot, estimated in its report last week that 80 percent of the US workforce may feel that at least ten percent of their jobs will be transferred to artificial intelligence.
Goldman Sachs expects that in the future artificial intelligence will be able, for example, to fill out tax returns for small businesses, evaluate insurance applications and document crime scene investigations.
On the other hand, according to the assessment, artificial intelligence would not be able to perform more complex work tasks, such as legal decisions, assess the health status of patients or figure out the twists and turns of international tax legislation.
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