The word negotiations in Washington have gone out of fashion. The images of the Russian atrocities push the White House on a line of absolute intransigence
FROM THE CORRESPONDENT FROM WASHINGTON. Arms the Ukrainians, sanctions to weaken the Russian economy, the exclusion of Moscow from international fora and an eye to the Pacific quadrant where Chinese moves are closely observed: these are the guidelines along which the Biden Administration moves in comparison with the Russia. The word negotiations in Washington have gone out of fashion. The images coming from Bucha and the fear – almost certainty – that new testimonies of violence will emerge from other Ukrainian locations, are pushing the White House on a line of absolute intransigence. Which causes Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin to say that “America will continue to give Ukrainians everything they need to be successful.” The front, Washington has identified above all in the Donbass and in the South: it is here that the military means and weapons that the allies make available to Kiev will arrive along a proven logistic chain. This is the first horn of Biden’s strategy that has undergone a drastic acceleration after Zelensky’s speech to the US Congress and pressure from Nancy Pelosi and Senator Charles Schumer for the White House to let go of all restraints.
Defeating Russia on the battlefield remains complicated: after the half-admission Wednesday by the defense spokesman that the Ukrainians “can win the war”, yesterday Pentagon sources reiterated the line made explicit by NATO: that is, that the war will be long and not you know how it will turn out. For this Biden has given instructions to all agencies not to spare efforts and resources and will use the Lend-Lease Program to accelerate the delivery of military equipment, bypassing all bureaucratic and regulatory obstacles. A preferential lane, in short, which was last adopted in 1944 to arm Europe against Hitler. Weapons continue to arrive at Ukrainian front-line positions every day. Biden has so far allocated 1.7 billion dollars, and has given the green light to share intelligence on the Donbass with the Ukrainians in order to facilitate field operations. It is a signal that – combined with the delivery of other “Swithblade” kamikaze drones capable of piercing armored vehicles – marks an acceleration in the conflict. Some Ukrainian soldiers are in the United States to receive training, but Kiev soldiers are already in the field capable of handling these drones effectively. Biden remains adamant on two elements: the no fly zones and the direct involvement of US soldiers on the ground. But the gap on what Washington thought it should and could do two months ago and what it does today has narrowed significantly. The US administration repeats on every occasion that the goal is to reduce Russia to an international pariah.
The sanctions that have hit it – five rounds so far including the one announced yesterday – will lead, in the estimates of the Americans, Moscow to see its GDP contracted by 15% and exit from the top 20 of the most prosperous economies on the planet. If weapons are the protection of Ukraine, sanctions instead are long-range, in Biden’s mind the ultimate goal is to take Putin out of any ambition for power. But the sanctions are also a signal sent to Beijing. The war in Ukraine did not divert American antennas from the Pacific. Indeed, the messages that the US are delivering are clear: first of all, the fact that four countries in the area (Australia, South Korea, New Zealand and Japan) participated in this week’s NATO summit is a warning to China: democracies – is the message brought by Blinken – are determined to defend the liberal order. Secondly, Biden used precisely in the interview with Xi Jinping last month the “compactness” of the West on the sanctions in Moscow, to reiterate that this treatment could also be reserved for China in case it were to support Putin with arms or economically. Or perhaps in the unfortunate eventuality of a Chinese attack on Taiwan. In recent days, military exercises are underway in the Philippines between the US and men from Manila. In Biden’s mind the mission of his Administration remains clear, the fight against autocracies and in this key he declines the actions.
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