Arctic’s enormous resource treasure heats the following great geostrategic battle between Putin and Trump

Arctic It is the cold heart of the world in full thawand the situation in the area is inadvertently intense. The catastrophe of its thaw is a mana potential of money with the clinc of a cash register as a background sound. It is a critical area for the world, not in vain the Institute of Geological Research of the United States estimated that 30% of gas reserves and 13% of world oil are concentrated in the Arctic. In addition, in this region there are manganese, lead, gold, platinum and unleashed diamond deposits. An appetizing botin For many.

In the midst of this panorama, no one would say that the US and Russia are separated by just four kilometers in the Diomedes Islands. The strangest border in the world, in the Bering Strait, near the Arctic Circle. It is the perfect example that The interests of Kremlin and the USwith Trump as a new Putin dance partner, They seem to be closer than ever. Let us not forget that the relationship of the two leaders has been qualified for years as ‘amnemeigos’. And the latest movements of its diplomats in their meeting in Saudi Arabia indicate that both countries intend to strengthen alliances at the energy level and shorter routes in this region, according to statements to ‘Bloomberg’. The two powers have already broken the ice, and Russia can offer business to the US to get advantage in the Peace Agreement with Ukraine.

American ardid

Enrique Ayala, an alternative and general brigade foundation analyst, details ABC that Trump’s aggressive interest in Greenlandthat it is an Arctic shuttle, or who has said that Canada It can be state 51 follows a road map. «It does not leave an insomnia night. Its objective is the coveted Arctic, ”he says. AND It is just the tip of the iceberg. The truth is that there is a lot at stake. Trump is aware of this and is more proactive than the previous administrations. “Why would they reject access to Russian natural resources that Kremlin has offered them?” Said Kirill Dmitriev, director of the Russian Direct Investment Fund who went to the appointment in Riyadh.

Positioning in the area is a priority. Rafael Martín Rodríguez, Professor of International Relations at the Pontifical University Comillas clarifies that security and commercial agreements are hand in hand for the distribution of the Arctic cake. Where 70% of potential oil reserves offered by the area are in Russian territory. And his new talks with Uncle Sam should worry both NATO, who wanted to isolate Putin, and Europe, because he lacks a concrete strategy in the region. “China saw it clear because it allows you to take its products to Europe and have maneuvering capacity,” adds Rodríguez.

Look Milosevich-Juaristi, principal researcher at Russia at the Royal Institute Elcano, details ABC that Trump is doing what Merkel or Sarkozy have done before. SThey caught the geopolitical and defense interest to their economic and commercial interests. And Ayala adds that the American ruse behind all this is Make China away of this area. This would allow the Kremlin to abandon the dependence he has with Beijing, because «it is now in Chinese hands. And their good relationships is something that have never been fully believed or Russians or Chinese, since they have many places where they can collide, ”says Rodríguez.

Candidate

There is Eight countries with territory in the Arctic region: Canada, Denmark (including Greenland), Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, United States by Alaska and Russia. Milosevich-Juaristi clarifies that Russia is the best positioned because it has the longest coast in the Arctic. And the Arctic Project ‘Business Index’ report discovered that Moscow represents between 50% and 60% of all investments in the Arctic. It has modernized its bases of the Soviet era in the area, and can mobilize companies and exploit resources such as fishing thanks to this, according to ‘The Wall Street Journal’. He has also established 14 airfields, has renewed 16 deep waters ports for the charges. And its northern fleet has about 120 ships.

Territorial claims

About the Arctic

Russian claim

American claim

Canadian claim

Danish claim

Without claiming

Future gas field

Future field of oil

Platform

Tuntralmo Olginskaya 1

Base

Arktiqueki Trilistnik

In the land of Francisco José

Snowflake

Future

season

Fountain IBRU (Durham University) and own elaboration / ABC

Pretensions

Territorial

About the Arctic

Russian claim

American claim

Canadian claim

Danish claim

Without claiming

Future gas field

Future field of oil

Platform

Tuntralmo

Olginskaya 1

Snowflake

Future

season

Base

Arktiqueki Trilistnik

In the land of Francisco José

Fountain IBRU (Durham University) and own elaboration / ABC

That is why in 2023, the US National Security Department claimed that Moscow’s ability to maintain a strong presence in the Arctic Ocean exceeded Washington’s. USA. It only has a really important basis. The Pituffik space base (formerly called the Thule Air Base), an installation, in the desired Greenland, Crucial for early missile alert and surveillance. And it has only four breakwoods. In contrast, Moscow has designed the first floating nuclear plant and has forty break to make their way through Arctic Routes.

Key routes

And it is that commercial routes are a crucial part. Ayala clarifies that that of the northwest It would be the one that would allow the Atlantic to the Pacific to northern Canada and Alaska, which would avoid having to go through the Panama Canal. But it has a more resistant ice and will take decades to be operational. Then, it is The Arctic Routewhich means moving from the North Atlantic to the Pacific through northern Russia and is expected that in the coming years it will be accessible for a longer time. Allows a trip two weeks shorter than that of the Suez Canal And it would be 25% more profitable. All this would simplify the logistics of the Cargueros.

To this is added that Ayala indicates that there is a possibility that The missiles can go on polar routes, instead of going for the Pacific. Making them more difficult to detect by radars. And Putin, as Norwegian intelligence reported, has been developing in the Arctic a technological business with supersonic missiles with nuclear heads. Whether for security or benefit, the Kremlin has already invested 19,000 million dollars on this route. While China He has doubled the transits of his ships. Even so, 80% of Chinese crude oil continues to receive it for the Malaca Strait. But this step could be a day blocked by the US or its allies. And a land path would force him to cross enemy countries, so he is interested in having an Arctic route.

The red cold war

Chinese companies, especially from the isolation of Russia with the Ukraine War, They are crucial investors and suppliers. They invested 12,000 million dollars in the Russian project of the Gnl Yamal gas pipeline. In return, Moscow, says Ayala, He has sent fuel to China using his ghost fleet of illegal ships with Russian oil to deliver it to the Asia markets. Even Russian and Chinese bombers flew together north of Alaska. Which activated alarms about the importance of the security of the US coast for Trump in the Arctic for Beijing.

Rodríguez says that China since 2013 is an observer of the Northern Pole forum and has approached very larger through scientific projects. And his polar silk route led him to self -proclaim a semi -ártical country, in 2018. In addition, The Asian giant is currently in charge of supplying the planet of many of the minerals that we could also find in the Arctic“Which is why the US has been interested in its exploitation,” Geoff Dabelko, a professor of security and environment at the University of Ohio, told AP.

Now, the US Global Investors manager wonders if with Trump We are facing a paradigm shift that defrost agreements Like the one that was going to have the American oil company Exxonmobil, 500 million dollars, with the Russian oil company Rosneft in the Arctic. Or, on the contrarywe will have an increase in Moscow’s alliances with China with A new red cold war. For Rodríguez, Putin cannot completely disconnect from his Asian neighbor, but “he will have an interesting strip and loosen.”

Juicy businesses

And in the process new opportunities may arise. Unusual business in the region arises from polar thaw, how to exploit the water from the icebergs. The idea is to obtain pure water with low mineral content. The Svalbardi company sells water taken from icebergs from the Norwegian Svalbard archipelago, in the Arctic region, for approximately 94 euros the bottle. And you have waiting list. «I would not be surprised if China showed interest in this. The water business is an important basis in the country, because few dare to drink from the tap. And there are 1.4 billion people drinking bottled water, ”says Rodríguez.

However, not all countries with interests in the Arctic are moving. «Europe is late. Which does not mean that things cannot be done yet supporting its partners with entrance to the Arctic. As Borrell said, you have to start having a language of great power, again, ”Rodríguez suggests. “There are plans on the financing table for these countries for research in the Arctic, but I think that in the future a European military presence should also be transferred,” he adds. As for commercial agreements, “I can see a proximity of China and Europe in the development of sustainable energies in the area, while Trump moves away from these proposals.”

Hence, Arctic Institute stands out that It is time to rethink the strategies we were for granted. The Arctic desert warms engines. And what is at stake is a commercial, strategic and security change unprecedented with A megatesoro in the fridge and a rampant ambition in the waiting room.