The demagogy and the propaganda should be put aside by him president and for all his court that acts Pavlovianly, when this Sunday the Political Council of Morena discuss the rules and requirements for those seeking the presidential candidacy. The draft was written by President Andrés Manuel López Obrador on Monday, and includes a point that should concern everyone, that the applicants resign next week at your charges. This demand opens the door to ungovernability, and would leave governance disjointed.
If he National Council of Morena obeys Lopez Obrador -Does anyone think otherwise?-, next week there will be no Secretary of the Interiorand with the early resignation of the foreign secretary, the president will be left without two pillars. The chancellor Marcelo Ebrard is key because he was the one who had the relationship with him U.S. government, which he built months before even starting the administration. He Secretary Adán Augusto López It has carried out by presidential instruction a large part of the political negotiation and shared the wear and tear of governing.
In both cases there will be relays, and despite the fact that they could be from Ebrard and López’s own teams – improbable, due to the way López Obrador places his strategic pieces or names his children’s recommended ones – they would have to go through a learning curve with less than a year of life in government. It seems little, but it is a lot. Next year there will be presidential elections in USAand Mexico as one of the issues of the campaign, it will require a container that there is not now in the government like Ebrard. In Mexico will be held biggest pick in history by the number of places at stakeframed in the violence and the growing participation of drug cartels in electoral processes.
But if the uncertainty about what the relays can do is great, it is more delicate what would happen if Claudia Sheinbaum, the head of government of Mexico City, is forced to leave office due to the occurrences of López Obrador and the demagogic management with which he wants to disguise the lack of equity in the contest for the candidacy. As far as her management is concerned, her replacement is less sensitive than in the cabinet, but by leaving her exposed for months before she can register as a candidate, if it were confirmed in September that she won the race, it would put her in a position of weakness. in front of the attorney general Alejandro Gertz Manerowho has a difficult and confrontational relationship with some of his close collaborators, and with the Army, who do not trust him.
The direct impact would be in the area of security, where the target would be the secretary of Security and Citizen Protection capital, Omar Garcia Harfuchrecipient of the hatred of Gertz Manero, and in the crosshairs of senior officials in the federal Ministry of Public Security for his alleged responsibility and complicity with the criminals who disappeared to 43 normalistas from Ayotzinapa. His permanence in office, moreover, is largely due to the fact that Sheinbaum has resisted pressure from López Obrador to remove him. When the head of government resigns and García Harfuch is left unprotected, the work that has been done in Mexico City to reduce crime could be cut short. Although by law the eventual removal of him could not relieve him, there are many other political, administrative and budgetary ways to cancel him.
Today, the battle they face Lopez Obrador and Morena It is not outside, with the opposition parties, but inside. If the campaign for the succession occurs on the terms as Ebrard forced them, with the condition of resignation prior to the process, the incentives to remain within the parameters of non-confrontation that López Obrador wants will disappear. There is sensitive and explosive information about several of the applicants, that the need to not lose step or ground when losing the floor of their charges, could encourage those who consider themselves to be at a disadvantage, and use it as a resource to derail the strongest adversaries. , strengthening the fratricidal campaigns that the teams of sheinbaum and ebrard for months, to discredit each other through social media.
The presidential succession in the ruling party has gotten out of hand. López Obrador’s formula of establishing a compensation system for those who do not reach the candidacy, offering them a future as leader of the Congress and of the Senate, or having a relevant position in the cabinet, tries to avoid fractures, but only sees a part of the present by not considering the consequences that a fight between candidates for governor could have in the field of governability. By insisting on the resignation of his posts, this variable seems to be out of the presidential considerations.
why did you bring it up Lopez Obrador? Ebrard’s public pressure seems to have forced him, resorting to demagogy to hide inequality, and help his narrative that there are no longer any big fingers or covers. The president qualified his first statements about the resignations, and asked that the National Council of BrunetteAlthough we all know that the final decision will not rest with the directors but with him. It is a mistake what it does, but there is a solution.
If the National Council of Brunette conforms to the statutes, it will turn the strategic mess around, because they do not require resignation as a condition of seeking a candidacy, except in the terms established by the Constitution, of not holding any position six months before the election. López Obrador does not seem to want to pay the cost of imputing an unequal contest, as Ebrard points out, and he prefers to put governability at risk. He must think that there is no problem, as he simplifies everything that he does not fully understand, and he has not learned from other experiences where his decisions have generated ungovernability.
Careful. The country is not for frivolity, nor will there be governance in the future without governance in the present.
twitter: @rivapa
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