War is no longer unthinkable in twenty-first century Europe. After weeks of speculation about whether Russia will invade Ukraine, a clear majority of those polled in a recent pan-European poll by the European Council on Foreign Relations (CERE) think war is likely and Europe should respond.
(It may interest you: NATO sees signs that Russia is preparing a ‘total attack against Ukraine’).
Different fears are behind the attitudes of different countries, depending in part on their own recent experiences.
In Poland, which has been facing attempts by Belarus to funnel Middle Eastern migrants across its borders, there are more fears of new waves of refugees. In France and Sweden, the main concern is cyberattacks, reflecting recent Russian interference in their national elections. And for the Germans, the Italians and the Romanians, the biggest fear is the energy deficit.
But there is more at stake than Europeans’ differing perceptions of external threats. The great German strategist Carl von Clausewitz’s description of war as a continuation of politics by other means is well known, and In the first weeks of the Ukraine crisis, how countries responded to the threat of war said a lot about their internal political situations.
(Also: What is happening between Ukraine and Russia?).
Consider the case of the United Kingdom. Many suspect that Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s sudden interest in Eastern Europe has less to do with Ukraine than with his desire to deflect attention from the revelation that his office held parties in Downing Street while the rest of the country was in confinement. Beyond that, the crisis may also offer him a chance to show the US that post-Brexit England still counts.
As for US President Joe Biden, his main goal is to minimize the time and resources needed to deal with the crisis. After taking office, his mission was to promote policies that would benefit the middle class and shift the focus of his country’s foreign policy towards the Indo-Pacific region and the challenge that China represents. With Donald Trump threatening to return to power, it is not just his policy towards Ukraine and Russia that is at stake, but the very future of American democracy.
The position that the United States adopts generates much concern in Central and Eastern Europe, whose citizens are increasingly anxious about the deterioration of US policy and its lack of resolve in the face of Russian aggression. His biggest fear is that if Russian tanks are allowed to invade Ukraine, their next destinations will be Tallinn, Riga or even Warsaw.
But there is more at stake than Europeans’ differing perceptions of external threats.
Meanwhile, countries like Germany, Italy, Austria and Greece fear that a conflict in Ukraine will prevent them from establishing a more normal relationship with Russia. Germany is torn between its Western values, its solidarity with its fellow Eastern and Central Europeans, and its post-war peace tradition.
Hence, Foreign Minister Olaf Scholz has had to reassure other Western leaders by telling them that Germany will be a reliable ally in the event of a war, while pointing out that he will avoid taking a leadership role in whatever the common response that adopt Europe.
His position contrasts sharply with that of French President Emmanuel Macron, who sees the crisis as an opportunity to demonstrate Europe’s ‘strategic autonomy’, an objective he has pursued since the start of his term. Of course, by taking visible leadership in resolving the crisis in Ukraine, Macron may also burnish his image on the eve of the French presidential election in April.
(Also: Russia – Ukraine: recognizing the separatists is the key to the invasion).
With its member countries divided by geography and history, the European Union has often had to strive to carve out a place for itself in this framework. The stereotype is that, appearing generally passive, weak and immobile, it is unwilling to defend or revise the current security order. Critics of her see her paralyzed by the prospect of two nightmare scenarios: open war or some kind of Yalta 2.0 deal, in which Russia and the US come to a new arrangement for Europe without even consulting the Europeans. .
shared goals
But underlying the obvious differences are the key interests that all Europeans share: namely, the desire to prevent another war in Europe; the need to preserve NATO’s credibility; and a sense of responsibility to prevent Ukraine from falling back under the yoke of Russia. The genius of European policymaking is its ability to reconcile domestic political imperatives with the need for international diplomacy. The Cere survey shows that, in recent weeks, there has been a convergence between European political entities on the need to respond to this situation.
The desire to prevent another war in Europe; the need to preserve NATO’s credibility; and a sense of responsibility to prevent Ukraine from falling back under the yoke of Russia
At the same time, European governments are finding better ways to manage their own divisions. While many Central and Eastern Europeans are uncomfortable with diplomatic talks, they have not tried to prevent the Americans or Macron from exploring options for rapprochement with Russia. And Macron, for his part, has been vigilant in consulting other countries and sticking to agreed principles around European security and Ukrainian sovereignty.
(Read on: US will work to ‘prevent’ any Russian action in the region.)
Furthermore, after initial hesitation and silence, Germany has signaled that it is willing to put all sanctions on the table. And as a European foreign minister recently confessed to me, even Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán mostly stuck to the common EU line when he met Russian President Vladimir Putin earlier this month. .
The fact that war in Europe is no longer unthinkable could force Europeans to make difficult compromises to preserve their collective peace. While certainly not his goal when he began massing troops on his border with Ukraine, Putin may have inadvertently helped transform EU member states from a fragmented assemblage of apprehensive observers into a bloc of determined defenders of their own security.
MARK LEONARD*
© PROJECT SYNDICATE
BERLIN
* Mark Leonard is director of the European Council on Foreign Relations.
Other news In depth:
Venezuela, the jewel in America of an expanding Russia
Does the conflict between Russia and Ukraine affect Colombia in any way?
Russia tested missiles; NATO and US warn of ‘imminent attack’ on Ukraine
#Analysis #Putin #Unite #Europe