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Good Morning. The situation in Madrid has monopolized information on the epidemic in recent weeks. Partly it was logical. The region had the worst incidence in Europe and in September there began to be discrepancies between administrations: the central government began to ask for tougher measures and the Community resisted imposing them.
That conflict has also polarized the debate around the virus. Any information is read these days putting health issues in the background and politics in front (who is right?). Something that, of course, seems like a bad idea to me.
These two issues make us neglect the situation outside Madrid. That is why today I propose an exercise: I am going to ignore the capital and write about the situation of the coronavirus in the rest of Spain.
The graph shows data for Spain excluding Madrid. These are figures from the ministry: cases, deaths and hospitalizations (light orange) come out of the SiViES (System for Surveillance in Spain. National Epidemiology Center), but I add the income according to the hospitals themselves (dark orange). I think that last series is more reliable and has less lag.
High incidence of cases and admissions. In Spain-without-Madrid some 8,000 daily cases and almost 1,000 admissions are reported. The incidence is 250 cases in 14 days (per 100,000 inhabitants), somewhat lower than counting Madrid (295), but still high and among the worst in Europe. The trend is not positive either: last week cases and hospitalizations rose.
About 80 deaths a day. It is the number of deaths that have been reported in Spain-without-Madrid for weeks. At that rate, it will be 2,400 per month, which means multiplying deaths in traffic accidents by 20 and exceeding those caused by lung cancer by 50%. Furthermore, this figure is probably underestimated.
These data are bad in relation to Europe. Spain has 2 communities among the 10 with the most cases in Europe (Navarra and Madrid) and another 4 among the 30 worst (Castilla y León, La Rioja, Aragón and Castilla-La Mancha). Of the 228 regions with data from ECDC, only Cantabria and the Canary Islands are better than the medium region.
The European Union has created an epidemiological traffic light. It uses two criteria, positivity (percentage of tests that test positive) and cumulative incidence (in 14 days and per 100,000 inhabitants):
- Green 🟢: AI <25 and positivity <4%
- Orange 🟠: AI at 25-150 and positivity <4%
- Orange 🟠: AI <50 and positivity> = 4%
- Red 🔴: AI> 50 and positivity> = 4%
- Red 🔴: AI> 150
The ECDC dyes the whole of Spain red. Partly because it uses the national incidence (10%). But the situation hardly changes looking at that indicator by region. Spain has no community close to the green. The lowest incidence is registered by the Canary Islands, which would only achieve a scraped orange, with an incidence of 86 and a positivity of 3.7%. In red, although not far from orange, would be Cantabria (109 and 5.1%), Galicia (134 and 5.7%), Balearic Islands (147 and 5.6%), Asturias (175 and 4.7%) .
Community to community: the worst problems
The graph shows the evolution of cases, admissions and deaths for the four communities with the most hospitalizations.
Navarra has the worst figures. Its incidence is the highest (60 daily cases per 100,000 inhabitants; more than 700 in 14 days) and in the last week it has seen hospital admissions grow. Its mortality is one of the worst: it reports 0.7 daily deaths per 100,000 inhabitants. In his favor: he does more PCR tests than anyone else; but his positivity is already above average (13%).
And in Castilla y León they are almost the same. It has fewer cases than Navarra – although it does less testing – but similar figures for daily income and deaths. In addition, its hospitals are more stressed: 16% of the beds are occupied and 32% of the ICU (only better than Madrid).
Aragon accumulates more deaths than anyone. It stopped cases in August, but has been stuck in a difficult situation: admissions and deaths occur at a steady rate. The victims are accumulating: since August it has registered (and reported) 44 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, double that of Madrid and La Rioja, which are behind. Nor are their positivity figures (15%) and hospital occupancy (11%) and ICU (32%) good.
Four communities in slow improvement
The graph shows the data for the following four communities by number of hospital admissions.
In Castilla-La Mancha income increases. It is one notch below the four communities of the previous group and the cases seem to be down. But their figures require some caution: the data from hospitals – dark orange – differ greatly from those from SiViES, the ministry’s information system from which the rest of the figures come, so there could be an underestimation.
La Rioja is hardly improving. Another of the communities that have suffered problems since summer: cases have fallen slightly but hospital admissions have not. It is the second community with the most accumulated deaths since July: 20 per 100,000 inhabitants. Now they seem to go down, but with flat income, it could be only a temporary improvement.
The Basque Country down. The community has registered a slow decrease in incidence since September, although it has hardly been noticed in hospital admissions. Deaths have been reported irregularly. Until September, hardly any deaths were reported to the ministry, then it was done suddenly. It is now the fifth community that has reported the most deaths.
Murcia seems to ease its hospitals. He had a lot of income in September, which now seems to go down slightly. His occupation, however, remains above average.
Spikes in quiet places
This third group includes four communities that had little income, but that are getting worse.
In Catalonia cases and income rebound. The Generalitat is considering hardening its measures. The arrival of sick people to hospitals has doubled in the last 15 days. The death toll is extremely low, but it is a known problem: Catalonia reports very few confirmed deaths to SiViES, although the Generalitat has in its statistics many more “suspicious of Covid”.
Andalusia worsens. In the region the cases and the rate of income are growing. Hospital occupancy is still relatively low (8.5% in the ward and 12.5% in the ICU), but the positivity of the tests exceeds 12% and is already above the average.
Asturias also worsens. Their figures are still relatively good, but since the summer cases and income have been growing gradually. It still has other favorable data: hospital occupancy is one of the lowest, it does many tests and has a positivity of 4.3%, which is good compared to the rest.
The Valencian Community remains stable. Revenues saw a small rebound this week, but it could be on time. It has the second best UCI occupancy and one of the best floor. His test numbers are not so good: he does not do many PCR tests and the positivity is high for its incidence (9%). Asturias does triple the tests and Galicia does double, for example.
Communities with less pressure
The last group is the communities with the lowest hospital admissions, which includes some where the cases seem to clearly decline.
Extremadura: why so many deaths? Their data is somewhat confusing: incomes are low, incidence is medium, and deaths are skyrocketing. It has reported deaths at the rate of Castilla-La Mancha, which has twice the number of hospitalizations. The difference may be the notification. Extremadura is one of the regions where income coincides in SiViES and hospitals, so perhaps the problem is with others.
Galicia stable in good numbers. The cases are flat since the end of the summer, as are the income and the deceased. It has the lowest hospital occupancy in Spain (3% in the ward and 5% in the ICU), does many tests and has a low positivity.
Cantabria quickly reduces the incidence. Revenues also fell and positivity remained low (4.8%), which points to a real decrease in infections. The community is also one of those that has reported the fewest deaths in SiViES.
Balearic Islands are improving fast. It had a peak of incidence at the end of summer, but since then the situation has improved. The positivity of the PCR tests is 5% and their hospitals are little stressed. The ICU occupancy is somewhat higher, which reminds us that they empty slowly.
The same happens in the Canary Islands. A case similar to the Balearic, even more benign. It has the lowest incidence in Spain, the lowest positivity and the lowest number of admissions.
2. All our data on covid-19
With Daniele grasso Y Borja Andrino:
1 | The problems of the Health data system continue (which feed the communities): it is late, it reports half the admissions of hospitals and we do not know how many deaths. It is a complex subject, almost tedious, but I think it is important. I summed it up On twitter.
2 | The map by areas of Madrid: you can search for your street and see the incidence. The incidence has dropped by 40% in the basic areas of the capital, although 88% of the population still lives in areas with an incidence greater than 300.
3 | In our weekly summary we counted that the curve of cases decreased in the communities with the highest incidence, but that income increased in another four. This Saturday more.
3. Who is winning in the US?
The basics: Joe Biden’s options go up to 83% probability, down from Donald Trump’s 16%. A Republican victory has fewer options. But it is not impossible: it is more or less equivalent to playing Russian roulette with a revolver and a bullet in its drum. In the article we have added a hexagon mapping, which I really think is useful:
More. Data updated every day.
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